Budget 2026: Will gold become cheaper after the budget or will the prices of silver touch the sky? What is special in the Finance Minister’s box?

Gold And Silver In Budget 2026: From the general public to investors, all eyes are on the Finance Minister’s ‘Budget Box’ regarding the budget to be presented on 1 February 2026. Resting on. Speculation is especially intense regarding the prices of gold and silver. After the global instability in the last few months and the recent ETF crash, the question has become very important whether gold will be cheaper after the Budget or its prices will rise further.

India imports a large part of its gold consumption from other countries of the world. Therefore, any change made in import duty in the budget directly affects domestic prices. If import duty increases then gold and silver will become expensive in Indian markets.

Possibility of import duty cut in the budget

Bullion market experts and Jewelers Association have demanded from the government to further reduce the import duty on gold. If the government cuts duty, gold and silver prices may see an immediate fall of Rs 2,000 to Rs 4,000 per 10 grams. At the same time, due to reduction in duty, official inflow of gold increases and smuggling reduces, which brings transparency in the market and keeps the prices stable.

Global conditions and the ‘Trump factor’

There have been major changes in global politics since the beginning of 2026. Signals of easing of tariff policies by US President Donald Trump and strategic agreements with NATO countries have strengthened the dollar. Usually when the dollar strengthens, gold prices see pressure internationally. If the Dollar Index maintains its gains around the budget, then there is less possibility of gold becoming very expensive in the Indian market too.

Will it be cheap or expensive? two possible scenarios

Scenario 1: If there are concessions in the budget (prices will fall)

If the Finance Minister is ‘middle class’ If India relaxes the rules for physical gold and Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGB) for the purpose of providing relief to investors or changes the period of Capital Gain Tax, then the interest of investors will increase. Also, the duty cut will bring prices down to ₹70,000 – Can fall in the range of ₹ 72,000.

Scenario 2: If duty remains unchanged (prices will remain stable or increase)

If the government keeps the duty unchanged to control the current account deficit (CAD), prices may again touch ₹78,000 – due to domestic demand (wedding season); Can touch the level of ₹ 80,000. In case of silver, it is likely to cross ₹95,000 per kg due to increase in industrial demand.

Silver ETF Crash and Budget Relation

The recent 12-21% fall in Gold and Silver ETFs on January 22 is an indication that the market has already taken the Budget and global cues as a ‘discount’. doing. Experts believe that this decline is due to pre-budget "profit booking" Due to which, instead of a big boom or a big fall after the budget, there will be ‘stability’ Expected to come.

Also read: Budget 2026: Factories will open in small cities to get away from the crowd of big cities, big bet on digital economy.

budget 2026 gold and silver A ‘double-edged sword’ (Could prove to be a double-edged sword). While government policies may make it cheaper, global uncertainty may increase its prices considering it a safe investment. It is advisable for small investors to wait for the market direction to become clear 2 to 3 days after the Budget.