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Following record voter turnout, current indications suggest that the Bharatiya Janata Party is poised to form the government in Assam, while the Congress appears set to return to power in Kerala. The outcome in both states has triggered intense speculation over who will assume the office of Chief Minister.
In Assam, it is widely considered almost certain that Himanta Biswa Sarma will once again take oath as Chief Minister, as the BJP fought the election projecting him as its central face. Throughout the campaign, visible anti-incumbency against the BJP government appeared limited, partly because the Congress faltered strategically in the early stages of the contest.
Questions persist over whether Rahul Gandhi miscalculated or whether his advisers led him into flawed decisions. To begin with, the appointment of Jitendra Singh as Assam in-charge raised eyebrows, given that his political influence is largely confined to the Alwar region of Rajasthan.
Subsequently, Rahul Gandhi handed over the leadership of the Assam Congress unit to Gaurav Gogoi, a move some observers argue did not reflect the prevailing political mood in the state. Veteran leaders began distancing themselves from the party thereafter. Responsibility for the Screening Committee was assigned to Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, a development that fuelled internal murmurs within the Congress about strategic missteps. For a leader of Priyanka’s stature, the role on the Screening Committee was viewed by some as relatively minor.
Political signals emerging soon after Gaurav Gogoi assumed charge suggested that Assam was slipping further out of the party’s reach. If the Congress fails in Assam, figures such as Jitendra Singh, Gaurav Gogoi and D. K. Shivakumar may not face direct consequences, but Priyanka Gandhi is likely to shoulder the political fallout.
In Kerala, a Congress victory would mark a return to power after a decade. Although Priyanka Gandhi serves as the Member of Parliament for Wayanad, organisational control in the state has largely rested with K. C. Venugopal. During internal discussions, Rahul Gandhi reportedly acknowledged that candidate selection had largely been shaped by Venugopal’s inputs.
Should the Congress-led United Democratic Front secure victory, speculation will intensify over whether Venugopal will stake claim to the chief ministership. A section within the party hopes that such an outcome could catalyse organisational reform.
However, on March 30, at an election rally in Puthuppally in Kottayam district, Rahul Gandhi expressed his anticipation of the day when Kerala would have a woman Chief Minister—an assertion that has unsettled certain party circles. Many within the Congress believe that regardless of the outcome, Venugopal will continue to steer organisational strategy for the foreseeable future.
Rahul Gandhi cannot realistically depend solely on a prospective Kerala victory as political momentum ahead of the 2029 general elections. If the Congress aims to reclaim ground in upcoming state contests, a comprehensive restructuring of its organisational approach will be necessary.
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