World Bank Warning: The fear does not end here… 4.5 crore people are at risk, World Bank’s big warning about Iran war

• Faced as a serious threat to the world
• A sharp rise in commodity prices up to 16 percent
• The potential closure of the ‘Strait of Hormuz’ has raised tensions

World Bank Warning: The tension in the Middle East due to the conflict between the US and Iran is emerging as a serious threat to the world. In a stark warning report, the World Bank made some predictions about the potential consequences of this conflict; Alarm bells have rung from these predictions. This suggests that there are indeed solid reasons to fear the outbreak of war in the Middle East. The report notes that heightened geopolitical tensions in West Asia due to the US-Iran conflict could cause serious disruptions to both global energy markets and commodity markets.

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A sharp rise in commodity prices up to 16 percent

According to the World Bank, the situation created by this conflict could increase energy prices by up to 24 percent in 2026; While commodity prices may see a steep rise of up to 16 percent. This is expected to boost global inflation and this will result in a slowdown in economic growth.

The potential closure of the ‘Strait of Hormuz’ has raised tensions

This World Bank report on conflict in the Middle East and the ‘Strait of Hormuz’ (Strait of Hormuz) focused on the possible closure of this strait. According to the report, if the supply of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted, it could affect about 35 percent of global crude oil trade. This has led to the worst oil supply crisis ever; As a result of which there has been a shortfall in global oil supply of about 1 crore (10 million) barrels per day.

Employment generation will be hampered

As a result of this conflict, energy prices may see sharp spikes similar to those seen during the Russia-Ukraine war that began in 2022. The analysis suggests that the shock will hamper job creation and seriously impact global economic growth. As the conflict between the US and Iran flares up, the consequences are only beginning to become apparent; As an indication of this, crude oil prices remain around 50 percent higher than earlier this year.

Expect long-term results

According to the report, the effects of this situation are predicted to persist even after the war-related tensions subside and the ‘Strait of Hormuz is reopened. Brent crude is expected to average $86 per barrel in 2026; This figure is significantly higher than the rate of $69 per barrel expected for 2025. Currently, crude oil prices are hovering above the $110 per barrel level in the international market.

The report highlights that when geopolitical tensions peak, volatility in oil prices nearly doubles. Due to the above various factors, if oil production falls even by 1 percent, prices are seen to rise by an average of 11.5 percent. This has a direct and widespread impact on other commodity markets as well. Illustrating this with a mathematical example, the report notes that a 10 percent increase in oil prices resulting from a supply crisis causes natural gas prices to rise by roughly 7 percent and fertilizer prices to rise by more than 5 percent.

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