Year Ender 2025: AAP wins in Delhi…NDA crosses 200 in Bihar, who made the accurate prediction this year?
Political Year Ender 2025: The year 2025 is in its last stages. Only five days are left and then we will greet the New Year 2026. 2025 was also very interesting from political point of view. This year assembly elections were held in Delhi and Bihar. BJP led NDA government was formed in both the states. This episode of Political Year Ender is related to the survey of these elections.
In the elections held in both these states, on one hand the Aam Aadmi Party, Congress and the Grand Alliance suffered a setback, while on the other hand, the condition of the survey agencies conducting exit polls and opinion polls was also miserable. However, there were one or two survey agencies which were successful in accurately sensing the public mood and arranging it in statistics. So let us know which are those agencies…
Opinion poll prediction in Delhi
Assembly elections were held in the national capital Delhi at the beginning of the year. Before voting in these elections, C Voter conducted an opinion poll, in which Aam Aadmi Party appeared to be forming the government in Delhi. The survey showed AAP in a strong position with 51 percent vote share, but the results showed something else.
Estimates of Delhi election exit polls
Along with this, many agencies gave their respective figures in the exit polls that came out after the voting held on February 5 in Delhi. In which someone showed a tough fight, someone predicted a landslide victory for Aam Aadmi Party and someone else for Bharatiya Janata Party. You can see all the exit polls in the table given below.
| agency | AAP | BJP | Congress | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matrix | 32 – 37 | 35 – 40 | 0 – 1 | 0 |
| People’s Pulse | 10 – 19 | 51 – 60 | 0 | 0 |
| Pmarq | 21 – 31 | 39 – 49 | 0 – 1 | 0 |
| JVC | 22 – 31 | 39 – 45 | 0 – 2 | 0 |
| Mind Brink | 44 – 49 | 21 – 25 | 0 – 1 | 0 |
| pole of poles | 30 | 39 | 0 | 0 |
Which agency’s survey was accurate in Delhi?
However, when the results of Delhi elections came out on February 8, all the exit polls appeared to be falling flat. However, P-Mark’s exit polls proved to be very close to the results. BJP formed the government by winning 48 seats in Delhi. Whereas Aam Aadmi Party was reduced to just 22 seats. Even Arvind Kejriwal had to face defeat.
What was estimated in the surveys of Bihar?
Talking about the election surveys and actual results of Bihar, a similar situation was seen here too. Before voting here, almost all the opinion polls predicted the victory of NDA. After voting, almost all the main survey agencies in the exit polls presented figures in favor of NDA. You can also see these figures in the table given below.
| Number | agency | NDA | grand alliance | Jan Suraj | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matrix | 147–167 | 70–90 | 00–02 | 02–08 |
| 2 | People’s Pulse | 133–159 | 75–101 | 00–05 | 02–08 |
| 3 | Dainik Bhaskar | 145–160 | 73–91 | 00–03 | 05–07 |
| 4 | People’s Insight | 133–148 | 87–102 | 00–02 | 03–06 |
| 5 | JVC | 135–150 | 88–103 | 00–01 | 03–06 |
| 6 | P-Marq | 142–162 | 80–98 | 01–04 | 00–03 |
| 7 | Chanakya Strategies | 130–138 | 100–108 | 00–00 | 03–05 |
Government’s estimate is right, seats are wrong
When the results of Bihar Assembly elections came on 14th November, the surveys of all the agencies given in the above table proved to be false. The prediction of NDA’s victory by the survey agencies proved to be true. But no one had predicted that NDA would win such a huge victory in Bihar.
NDA gets bumper majority in Bihar
NDA won 202 seats and formed the government in Bihar with a huge majority. In the exit poll of Bihar Assembly elections, no survey agency had predicted the NDA to win more than 167 seats. Seen from this perspective, all the election surveys here appeared to be failing.
Also read: Year Ender 2025: From road to power…these yatras changed the political atmosphere, who won the lottery-who failed?
The surveys conducted during Delhi and Bihar elections show that we should gauge the atmosphere at the ground level. An eye should be kept on him till the last round of elections. The mood of the public should not be judged by the crowd at rallies and the words of the leaders. One should try to catch the ground wind of the survey and ultimately trust the election results.
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