Political parties in Uttar Pradesh have intensified their preparations for the 2027 UP Assembly elections. BJP has the target of returning to power for the third consecutive time, but there are some assembly seats in the state where the path to victory is not easy for the party. These seats have been under the influence of Congress, Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and local political bigwigs for decades. At some places, there has been political dominance of a single family, and at some places the consecutive victories of a leader have made the seat its stronghold.
10 assembly seats of the state are being considered a big challenge for BJP. These include Rampur Khas, Kunda and Babaganj of Pratapgarh, Jaswantnagar of Etawah, Malhani of Jaunpur, Rasra of Ballia, Unchahar of Rae Bareli, Sisamau of Kanpur and Gopalpur and Lalganj of Azamgarh. The electoral history on these seats shows that BJP will have to compete not only on the basis of state level political strategy, but on the basis of local equations and strong organization.
Rampur Khas, Kunda and Babaganj assembly seats of Pratapgarh district have been difficult electoral grounds for BJP. The influence of different political forces is visible on all three seats. Congress has dominated the Rampur Khas assembly seat since 1980. Senior Congress leader Pramod Tiwari made this seat his strong political stronghold by winning nine consecutive assembly elections from 1980 to 2012.
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After Pramod Tiwari went to Rajya Sabha in 2014, his daughter Aradhana Mishra Mona won the by-election. After this, he also won the assembly elections of 2017 and 2022. In this way, the winning streak of Congress has continued in Rampur Khas from Pramod Tiwari to Aradhana Mishra Mona. In the 2022 elections, Aradhana Mishra defeated BJP candidate Nagesh Pratap Singh. It will not be easy for BJP to challenge the strong organization of Congress and the influence of Tiwari family on this seat.
Kunda: Raja Bhaiya's continuous victory since 1993
Raghuraj Pratap Singh alias Raja Bhaiya has political dominance over Kunda assembly seat of Pratapgarh for a long time. Raja Bhaiya has won all the seven assembly elections held from 1993 to 2022. Raja Bhaiya, who had contested the initial elections as an independent candidate, formed Jansatta Dal Loktantrik in 2018.
He won on the ticket of the same party in 2022. In the 2022 elections, Raja Bhaiya got 99,612 votes, while Gulshan Yadav of Samajwadi Party got 69,297 votes. BJP candidate Sindhuja Mishra Senani got 16,455 votes. Raja Bhaiya had won by a margin of 30,315 votes. Raja Bhaiya's personal hold in Kunda and regional political equations remain a big challenge for the BJP.
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Babaganj: Influence of Jansatta Dal
Babaganj assembly seat of Pratapgarh has also been challenging for BJP. This seat, which came into existence in the year 2012, has been won by Jansatta Dal or its associated candidates in the last three assembly elections. Vinod Kumar Saroj is the main political face here. Due to continuous electoral success, the influence of Jansatta Dal remains strong in Babaganj. In 2027, BJP will have to prepare its strategy afresh on this seat.
Dominance of Yadav family in Jaswantnagar
Mulayam Singh Yadav and his family have had influence on Jaswantnagar assembly seat of Etawah district for a long time. In the year 1967, Mulayam Singh Yadav became MLA from this seat for the first time. After this, he maintained his hold here on the tickets of different political parties. In 1996, Shivpal Singh Yadav contested elections from this seat on Samajwadi Party ticket and won.
After this, Shivpal Singh Yadav remained victorious continuously in the assembly elections of 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017 and 2022. In the 2022 elections, Shivpal Singh Yadav defeated BJP's Vivek Shakya by a huge margin of 90,979 votes. SP's strong organizational hold in Jaswantnagar and the political legacy of the Yadav family are a big challenge for the BJP.
SP's hold in Malhani
Samajwadi Party has had influence on Malhani assembly seat of Jaunpur. Parasnath Yadav had won this seat in the 2012 elections. Parasnath Yadav was victorious in 2017 also. After his demise, Lucky Yadav won the 2020 by-election. Even in 2022, Lucky Yadav retained the seat on Samajwadi Party ticket. Continued electoral success has strengthened the Samajwadi Party's base in Malhani. BJP will have to work extra hard to manage the local leadership and social equations here.
Strong base of BSP in Rasra
Bahujan Samaj Party has had influence on Rasra assembly seat of Ballia district for a long time. BSP won this seat for the first time in the year 1993. BJP won here in 1996, but after this, BSP won consecutively in the assembly elections of 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017 and 2022.
BJP's last victory on this seat was in 1996. After this the party has had to face continuous electoral challenges. Considering BSP's strong base in Rasra, BJP will have to pay special attention to its social equations and organizational strategy.
SP continues victory in Unchahar
Unchahar assembly seat of Rae Bareli district came into existence after delimitation in the year 2008. The first assembly elections were held here in 2012. Till now, three assembly elections have been held on this seat in 2012, 2017 and 2022 and Samajwadi Party has won all three times. Manoj Kumar Pandey has won three consecutive elections from this seat. After his joining BJP, the party hopes to create new political equations here. However, given the influence of Samajwadi Party on the seat, the challenge remains for BJP to strengthen the organization and increase its hold among the voters.
BJP awaits victory in Sisamau
BJP had won the Sisamau assembly seat of Kanpur in the elections of 1991, 1993 and 1996. After this the party did not win here. Samajwadi Party maintained its influence on this seat for a long time. In 2022, Irfan Solanki of Samajwadi Party had won. After him, his wife Naseem Solanki won the 2024 by-election on Samajwadi Party ticket. SP's strong hold in Sisamau and local political equations remain a challenge for BJP.
Azamgarh's Gopalpur and Lalganj also a challenge
BJP will have to make extra efforts to achieve electoral success in Gopalpur and Lalganj assembly seats of Azamgarh district. BJP has not yet been able to open its account of victory on Gopalpur seat. Whereas in Lalganj, BJP has not won since 1996. Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party have had influence on both these seats. Local social equations, caste based and regional leadership have been influencing the election results. In 2027, BJP will face the challenge of strengthening its political ground on these seats.
What will be BJP's strategy?
Before the UP Assembly 2027, BJP faces a big challenge to strengthen its organization on these 10 seats. The party will have to prepare a special strategy in those areas where the opposition parties have been continuously winning in the last several elections. Activating the organization at the booth level, giving responsibility to local leaders, selecting strong candidates and cultivating social equations can play an important role in BJP's strategy.
The party will have to focus on increasing public relations among voters and strengthening its political hold in areas where the opposition has a strong base. Local issues, candidate image and regional leadership can influence the election results in these seats. In such a situation, not only election campaigning but also organizational strength at the grassroots level will be necessary for BJP.
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The test of breaking into the opposition's fort in 2027
UP Assembly elections 2027 will be a test for BJP to return to power as well as strengthen its hold on those seats where the opposition has had influence for a long time. The influence of Congress on Rampur Khas in Pratapgarh and Jansatta Dal in Kunda-Babaganj, Shivpal Yadav's consecutive victory in Jaswantnagar, BSP's strong base in Rasra and opposition equations on Azamgarh seats will test BJP's strategy.
Now the question is whether BJP will be able to break into the strong forts of the opposition on the basis of organization and electoral strategy on these seats or not. In the 2027 elections, the contest for these seats could be one of the most interesting electoral struggles in the state politics.