India’s merchandise exports are estimated to reach close to $112 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027.

According to the report released on Wednesday (May 13), India’s total merchandise exports are estimated to be $ 111.9 billion in the April-June quarter of fiscal year 2027. This shows a slight increase compared to the same period last year.

According to the latest quarterly export outlook report of the government-backed Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank), non-oil exports are estimated at $ 97.8 billion in the first quarter of FY 2027, an increase of 3.5 percent compared to the same period last year.

At the same time, non-oil and non-gems and jewelery exports have been estimated at $90.4 billion, which shows an annual growth of about 3 percent in the same quarter. The growth in non-oil exports is expected to be supported by increasing geographical spread of exports, timely government policy interventions and targeted emergency credit support measures, the bank said.

The report also said that recently concluded trade agreements with some countries could help maintain the pace of growth in non-oil export sectors. Additionally, a possible improvement in global demand and favorable exchange rates may also benefit India’s export outlook.

However, the bank warned that risks such as global economic uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts and fluctuations in international commodity markets still remain. It is noteworthy that India Exim Bank releases estimates of merchandise exports, non-oil exports and non-oil and non-gems and jewelery exports every quarter through its in-house Export Leading Index (ELI) model.

The model is designed to forecast the direction and potential performance of India’s exports on a quarterly basis by assessing domestic and global factors. The next export forecast for the July-September quarter of fiscal 2027 will be released in the first fortnight of August 2026, the bank said.

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