Thailand forecast to see 9% decline in foreign arrivals in second quarter amid high airfares
A reveler plays with water at Khaosan Road, one of the favorite tourist spots in Bangkok, Thailand, April 13, 2026. Photo by Reuters
Bangkok-based research company Kasikorn Research Center forecasts a 9.2% drop in foreign arrivals to Thailand in the second quarter as Middle East tensions, elevated oil prices and higher airfares weigh on travel demand.
The number of foreign visitors between April 1 and 5 reached around 430,000, already down 2.4% from the same period last year, the company shows.
The downturn is largely linked to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East since March, which have dampened travel confidence and pushed up costs through higher oil prices and airfares, it says, as reported by Nation Thailand.
For the full second quarter, foreign arrivals are projected at approximately 6.49 million, well below the 9.32 million recorded in the first quarter.
Thailand may receive up to three million fewer foreign visitors in 2026 if the war persists for six months, Natthriya Thaweevong, permanent secretary at the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, said as quoted by Bloomberg.
Such a decline would reduce arrivals to around 28 million, comparable to 2023 levels and well below the government’s 35 million target.
Ongoing conflict‑related airspace closures in the Middle East have forced airlines to reroute or cancel flights on major Europe-Asia corridors, increasing the cost of travel to Thailand.
With 32.9 million international arrivals in 2025, Thailand was Southeast Asia’s second most visited country after Malaysia.
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