Congress coin was once prevalent in Thakurdwara, why now voters are not found even after searching?

There are many such seats in the politics of Uttar Pradesh, which have completely changed their nature with time. Thakurdwara assembly seat of Moradabad district also tells a similar story. There was a time when the tricolor flag was flying on this seat and being able to move it was no less than a challenge for the opponents. But today the ground reality is that Congress has been completely marginalized here, and the electoral contest has been limited mainly between Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The election data of the last two decades clearly testifies how Congress’s strong vote bank gradually slipped away from its hands. In fact, the voters who were once the backbone of Congress, moved to the side of SP, BSP and BJP under the new political equations. The result was that Congress, which once registered a one-sided victory, today seems forced to fight for third or fourth place in Thakurdwara.

History of Thakurdwara assembly seat: When Congress was dominant

If we look back at the old electoral history, Thakurdwara was identified as the strongest stronghold of Congress. In the year 1957, Kishan Singh of Congress was elected MLA from here. After this, in 1962 and again in 1974, Rampal Singh won on Congress ticket. This victory chariot of the party did not stop here; In 1980 also, Congress won here and in 1985, Sakhawat Hussain of Congress (J) reached the assembly. At that time, the party had such a strong alliance of Muslims, Dalits and traditional rural voters that it was not easy to break.

But the 1990s shook the entire politics of Uttar Pradesh. Due to the storm of Mandal-Kamandal movement, the mood of Thakurdwara seat also started changing. The rise of caste equations and regional parties started gnawing away at the political ground of Congress. While BSP worked on Dalit-Muslim alliance, SP worked on the Yadav and Muslim equation. On the other hand, BJP grew rapidly by consolidating Hindutva and non-Yadav OBC votes.

The by-election of 2014, which changed the entire picture of Thakurdwara.

In fact, the 2002 assembly elections were the last major battle for the Congress in Thakurdwara. Then Congress candidate Mohammad Ullah Khan got 44.04% votes and he lost in a very close contest by just a few votes to BJP’s Kunwar Sarvesh Kumar, who got 45.74% votes. But after this the decline of Congress increased. In the 2012 elections, the party fielded Nawab Jaan, who got 21.12% votes, but taking advantage of the huge dispersion of opposition votes, BJP won the seat.

According to local political pundits, the 2014 by-election proved to be the biggest turning point in the politics of Thakurdwara. Just before the elections, Nawab Jaan left Congress and rode a bicycle, that is, he joined SP. This one defection changed the entire equation. Nawab Jaan, contesting on SP ticket in the by-election, got a whopping 47.82% votes, while BJP stood at 36.19%. At the same time, Congress was limited to only 7.48% votes. At this juncture, the big Muslim vote bank of Congress completely shifted towards SP.

Now direct fight between SP vs BJP, Congress faces existential crisis

Since 2014, the politics of Thakurdwara has been divided into two poles. On one hand, SP has greatly strengthened its Muslim-Yadav equation, while on the other hand, BJP has deepened its penetration among non-Yadav OBC, upper caste and Hindu voters. The assembly elections of 2017 and 2022 have confirmed this. In the year 2017, SP got 42.07% votes and BJP got 36.84% votes. By the year 2022, this competition became more intense; SP’s vote share increased to 48.76% and BJP’s also reached 41.62%. Amidst the growing power of these two giants, parties like Congress and BSP were completely out of the race.

Political analysts consider many major reasons behind this decline of Congress. The biggest problem was the lack of strong local leadership and the continuous weakening of the organization. When the core voters shifted to different parties, the party was left with only its old history.

Now the question arises whether there is any hope left for Congress in future? At present the situation is very challenging. In the future, if a new chemistry is formed between the opposition alliances or the Congress succeeds in preparing a strong local face on the ground, then only it will be able to make a difference. At present, in the political chessboard laid on Thakurdwara seat, the main contest is visible between SP and BJP. While SP is trying to maintain its lead on the basis of its social fabric, BJP is continuously increasing its vote share and toughening the challenge. The coming elections will decide whether the momentum of SP’s cycle continues at Thakurdwara or whether the lotus blossoms.