Congress is engaged in correcting the mistakes and errors in Kerala, how ready is the Gandhi family to make DK the CM in Karnataka?

The tussle in the Congress regarding the post of Karnataka Chief Minister has again intensified, now it is no longer just an issue of state politics, but it is directly linked to the political strategy of the Gandhi family and the future direction of the Congress. During the recent return to power in Kerala, the way the party had to face internal discomfort regarding the Chief Minister’s face and factionalism, but the manner in which grassroots leader Satheesan was made the CM there, is the party’s new strategic thinking. Congress leaders have received new signs of change. This is the reason why Rahul Gandhi, Mallikarjun Kharge and KC Venugopal are constantly reviewing the situation by calling Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar to Delhi.

Will the party add to the sanjeevani received by the Kerala victory by making it effective in other states? The biggest question before the party is whether while maintaining the balance of power DK Shivakumar Should he be made the future chief ministerial face, or should Siddaramaiah be kept ahead till the elections. That means Siddaramaiah should be kept as CM till 2028?

The Congress leadership currently wants to avoid any open conflict, because it fears that if the change of leadership happens at the wrong time, then Karnataka can also become a big example of factional conflict like Rajasthan and Punjab. For this reason, the meeting to be held in Delhi is not just being considered a formal discussion, but the most important test of the “Faction Management Model” of the Congress.

Gandhi family can no longer ignore Shivkumar?

DK Shivakumar has been counted among the most influential leaders of the Congress organization for a long time. His organizational ability, resource management and role in keeping the MLAs united are openly acknowledged within the party as the reason behind Congress’s victory in the 2023 assembly elections. His closeness with the Gandhi family is also not hidden from anyone. This is the reason why the discussion about the post of Chief Minister revolves around him every time.

Shivakumar supporters claim that there was a “secret agreement” regarding power sharing, under which he should get a chance after Siddaramaiah’s tenure. However, the Congress leadership has always avoided publicly confirming this claim.

Siddaramaiah and Shikumar In Who is the leader with stronger support base than?

The biggest political dilemma of Congress is that Siddaramaiah is still considered the most popular and mass base leader in the state. But now their influence is decreasing. DK Shivkumar has taken his place. AHINDA i.e. minority Siddaramaiah is of the opinion that Shiv Kumar has more influence among Lingayats and backward and Dalit classes. Any decision of change of leadership before the 2028 elections can affect the social equations.

Siddaramaiah supporters are continuously giving the message that the stability of the current government is because of him. In such a situation, if he is removed, both dissatisfaction and caste polarization within the party may increase.

Is the Delhi meeting an exercise in greater political balancing?

The meeting to be held in Delhi is not being seen only in the context of the post of Chief Minister. It also includes issues like cabinet expansion, selection of Rajya Sabha candidates and organizational reshuffle. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah has been demanding cabinet expansion for the last several months. At present there are three vacant posts in the government and many senior MLAs are pressurizing them to become ministers. According to sources, the Congress leadership can also review the performance of 10 to 12 ministers. For the party, it is not just a matter of balancing power but also of solving caste and regional equations.

Can Dalit card become the new strategy of Congress?

Amidst this entire fight, the activism of Dalit leaders has made the equation more complex. Some senior Congress leaders are arguing that if there has to be a change in leadership, then the party should bet on a Dalit face. If this happens, then the name of Home Minister Parmeshwar is most discussed in this context. Senior MLA KN Rajanna has also publicly described Parameshwara as a possible chief ministerial face. Interestingly, some leaders of the Siddaramaiah camp also seem to be supporting this option. According to political analysts, this strategy could also be an attempt to balance DK Shivakumar’s claim and avoid the Vokkaliga versus Kuruba conflict.

Why is DK Shivkumar insisting on reshuffle?

According to sources, DK Shivakumar is in favor of cabinet reshuffle. He wants the party to make him the CM before Siddaramaiah makes any new move. If Siddaramaiah succeeds in strengthening his team, Shivakumar’s chances of becoming a minister in the next two years may weaken. This is the reason why the Shivkumar camp is continuously insisting that a clear decision should be taken on the change of leadership. On the other hand, Siddaramaiah supporters want that the government’s focus should be on administration and development, so that the message of stability is sent till the next elections.

Will Congress repeat the Kerala incident in Karnataka?

The biggest fear of the Congress leadership is that the Karnataka dispute may turn into a public power struggle. During the government formation in Kerala, the way news of factional tussle continuously came out, the image of the party was damaged. Rahul Gandhi and the party high command are now trying to adopt the “managed transition” model in Karnataka. That means neither Siddaramaiah should be shown as completely weak nor DK Shivakumar should be angered. This is the reason why the party has not yet given a clear signal to any party.

At present, Congress’s strategy seems to be to take both the camps together. But how long will this balance last, this is going to be the biggest question of Karnataka politics in the coming months.