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Treaty renewal negotiations carry diplomatic, political and strategic implications.
The issue of water sharing has once again become a key source of tension between India and Bangladesh as the 30-year-old Ganga Water Sharing Treaty approaches its expiry in December 2026.
With negotiations for a new agreement gaining momentum, Dhaka has indicated that the future course of bilateral ties with New Delhi will largely depend on the outcome of the revised treaty.
What was once viewed as a technical matter related to river water allocation has now evolved into a strategically sensitive issue with implications for India-Bangladesh relations, West Bengal politics, border security and regional geopolitics.
The original treaty was signed on December 12, 1996, during the tenure of former Indian Prime Minister H. D. Deve Gowda and then Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The agreement focused on sharing water from the Farakka Barrage, which was built to divert water into the Hooghly River to maintain the navigability of Kolkata Port.
Bangladesh, however, has consistently maintained that the Farakka Barrage reduces downstream water flow during the dry season, negatively impacting agriculture, fisheries, biodiversity and drinking water availability in large parts of the country.
Under the existing arrangement, if water flow at Farakka falls below 70,000 cusecs, India and Bangladesh share the water equally. If the flow remains between 70,000 and 75,000 cusecs, Bangladesh receives 35,000 cusecs while India retains the rest. During periods of exceptionally low flow, both countries are expected to resolve the issue through mutual consultations.
As the treaty nears expiry, Bangladesh’s political leadership has increased pressure on India for a revised agreement that reflects “Bangladesh’s needs and expectations.” BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir recently stated that any future arrangement must address Dhaka’s concerns and asserted that the current treaty should continue until a new pact is finalised.
The issue carries significant political sensitivity in Bangladesh, where the Farakka Barrage has long been portrayed as a symbol of India’s upstream water diversion. Nearly one-third of Bangladesh’s population depends on the Ganges-Padma river system for agriculture, fisheries, drinking water and livelihoods, making water sharing both an environmental and political issue.
Dhaka’s concerns have intensified further after Bangladesh approved a major barrage project on the Padma River, scheduled for completion by 2033. While the Bangladeshi government says the project is intended to reduce the “negative impact” of the Farakka Barrage, experts caution that declining Ganga water levels could worsen siltation and create additional ecological challenges.
For India, the negotiations present a complex balancing act. On one side, New Delhi aims to maintain stable ties with Bangladesh at a time when China is expanding its influence in Dhaka. Bilateral relations have already faced strain following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in 2024 and Bangladesh’s increasing engagement with Pakistan during the administration led by Muhammad Yunus.
At the same time, the issue has major political implications within West Bengal, where the BJP now governs both the Centre and the state under Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari. Water sharing remains highly sensitive in Bengal, particularly in North and South Bengal regions that depend heavily on river water for agriculture and daily needs.
Any move to allocate a larger share of water to Bangladesh could trigger political backlash in Bengal, where concerns over illegal migration and border security are already politically charged. Conversely, failure to reach an agreement could negatively affect India’s strategic relationship with Dhaka.
India’s former High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Veena Sikri, told Read that India has made it clear that discussions with Bangladesh should cover all bilateral issues and not remain limited to the Ganga Water Treaty alone. During Bangladesh Foreign Minister Khalil-ur-Rehman’s recent visit, India stressed the need for broader negotiations involving water sharing, trade, connectivity, investment and stalled bilateral projects.
She noted that several India-Bangladesh trade arrangements and development projects have slowed over the past two years, while the policy direction of the new BNP government under Prime Minister Tariq Rahman remains uncertain.
Sikri further pointed out that the Ganga Water Treaty now requires fresh negotiations due to changing river flows, climate-related impacts and rising water demand. She also highlighted that former West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee had advocated greater water release from the Farakka Barrage for desiltation and maintenance of Kolkata Port.
On the Teesta issue, Sikri observed that Mamata Banerjee had opposed the proposed water-sharing agreement, citing water shortages in North Bengal. The matter has also gained strategic significance because of Bangladesh’s possible cooperation with China on the Teesta river management project.
Unlike the Ganga, reliable historical data on Teesta River flows is limited, making a joint assessment of water availability necessary before any agreement can be finalised.
Political observers point out that the BJP had earlier opposed the Teesta agreement while in opposition in Bengal on similar grounds. However, with the BJP now in power both at the Centre and in the state, friction between Kolkata and New Delhi over water-sharing agreements may reduce considerably.
Analysts believe the Ganga water-sharing negotiations could become the first major diplomatic and political challenge for the Suvendu Adhikari government. Any decision to share more water with Bangladesh risks local resentment in Bengal, while delays in negotiations may further strain India-Bangladesh relations.
Experts also believe that any future agreement may extend beyond water allocation to include river management, flood control, environmental protection, sediment management and climate cooperation.
Discussions on the Teesta project also continue in Bangladesh, with officials stating that the proposal remains under review and will require further consultations before implementation. Bangladesh has already indicated that it seeks a long-term agreement under revised terms and is unlikely to accept only a short-term arrangement.
Meanwhile, India is reportedly considering an interim framework to keep negotiations active and avoid a diplomatic crisis ahead of the 2026 deadline.
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