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Auspicious timings, elections and Parliament session may delay restructuring plans.
The shadow of Chaturmas, the four-month holy period in the Hindu calendar, is looming over the much-anticipated restructuring of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s team. While intense speculation persists that the Prime Minister may reshuffle his Cabinet between June 30 and July 6, if it does not happen during this period, the next likely window would be between July 11 and July 24. However, the timing will also be influenced by Parliament’s Winter Session. If changes to the Modi team do not materialise during the remaining days of July, the exercise could be postponed until the New Year.
There are several reasons behind the possibility of such a delay. The first is the commencement of Chaturmas on July 25, a four-month period that lasts until November 20 and during which no auspicious activities are traditionally undertaken. The BJP, regarded as a pro-Hindu party, has historically made major announcements during auspicious periods, and its past decisions reflect a clear preference for favourable timings.
The second reason relates to the upcoming Assembly elections in five states, including Uttar Pradesh. Elections could potentially be held in December, ahead of schedule, because of the Ardh Kumbh in Uttarakhand, scheduled for January, and the second phase of the caste census in February. This means that elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur could all take place in December. Since a Cabinet expansion cannot be undertaken during an election period, the political calendar significantly narrows the available window.
A third important consideration is the possibility that a massive BJP victory in Uttar Pradesh could trigger a large-scale exodus of leaders from the Samajwadi Party and Congress into the BJP. Prime Minister Modi may therefore prefer to wait until the Uttar Pradesh election results are declared before carrying out any major restructuring.
The elections in these five states, particularly Uttar Pradesh, are considered crucial. The Winter Session of Parliament is expected to begin around November 20 and continue for nearly a month, although a shorter session remains possible due to the Assembly elections. By November 24, when Chaturmas ends, Parliament will already be in session and elections in the five states would have been announced. Consequently, leaders aspiring for ministerial berths may have to wait until February or March next year.
At present, the Prime Minister has only a limited window available before July 24. He is away from Delhi until June 29 and will remain in the country from June 30 to July 5. Thereafter, he is scheduled to visit Indonesia, New Zealand and Australia from July 6 to July 11. Excluding these dates, the Prime Minister could reshuffle his team on any day until July 24.
However, the likelihood of a Cabinet expansion during an ongoing parliamentary session is considered low. If an expansion is to take place before the session, it would require at least a week’s lead time so that newly appointed ministers are adequately prepared to answer questions in Parliament. By this calculation, a Union Cabinet expansion would need to occur by July 13; otherwise, the matter is likely to be deferred until next year.
Viewed in this context, the auspicious dates fall between June 30 and July 5 and again between July 12 and July 13—windows during which Prime Minister Modi could restructure his team if he so chooses. In all, there are eight auspicious days available for such a decision.
Attention is also focused on the expected announcement of BJP National President Nitin Nabin’s team during this period, as these dates are considered auspicious for that exercise as well. The BJP traditionally pays close attention to auspicious and inauspicious timings in accordance with Hindu customs. Similar consideration was given to the Malmas period while announcing Nitin Nabin’s name as National President and during his formal election. Likewise, the announcement of his team, expected any day now, is also likely to take place during an auspicious muhurat.
All indications suggest that Nitin Nabin’s team could be announced at any moment. The turn for the Union Cabinet expansion is expected to come only after that announcement. There are also indications that some ministers may be shifted into the party organisation, while certain organisational leaders could be inducted into Prime Minister Modi’s team.
No one apart from the Prime Minister knows exactly when the Union Cabinet expansion will take place, although sources indicate that he has completed the necessary groundwork and will make the announcement whenever he considers appropriate. Speculation has intensified because the only Cabinet expansion during Prime Minister Modi’s second term took place on July 7, 2021, just seven months before the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections. At that time, Chaturmas was set to begin on July 10, and keeping the UP elections in mind, the Prime Minister carried out sweeping changes to his team three days earlier, dropping a dozen ministers.
The circumstances, however, were different then. The BJP faced specific political challenges in Uttar Pradesh, making significant changes necessary. At present, the party appears to face no immediate challenge in the state, and the opposition has been pushed onto the defensive following the BJP’s major victory in West Bengal.
For now, Prime Minister Modi’s immediate priority is securing the passage of the revised delimitation bill during the Monsoon Session of Parliament. The BJP is working towards obtaining a two-thirds majority in both Houses for the measure, and it is believed that the required numbers will be achieved.
Members of Parliament from the Trinamool Congress and other parties who are moving closer to the NDA do not appear to be in any hurry to become ministers. Those hoping for a ministerial berth with the Prime Minister’s approval seem willing to wait patiently for the long haul.
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