Shock to SP-Congress, will they fight elections closely with BJP or alone? A statement by Mayawati changed the entire equation of UP!

It has always been difficult to say when and what turn will take place in the politics of Uttar Pradesh. The latest statement of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) National President Mayawati on the ongoing controversy regarding offerings in Shri Ram Temple in Ayodhya and Badrinath Dham in Uttarakhand is reflecting this uncertainty. While on one hand Mayawati has demanded SIT and government’s activism to investigate the temple management, on the other hand she has taken on opposition parties like Samajwadi Party (SP), Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). After this stance of Mayawati, big political speculations have started in the political circles.

Actually, election analysts and political pundits are seeing a big chronology behind this statement of Mayawati. There are intense discussions that BSP is in no mood to go with SP or Congress in the upcoming elections. There are also speculations that Mayawati is either secretly preparing the ground for an alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), or she has once again decided to contest the elections alone, following the strategy of ‘Ekla Chalo Re’.

Sharp attack on SP and Congress: Are all paths of alliance broken?

The way Mayawati, in her statement, has sought concrete evidence of irregularities in the offerings from senior leaders of SP and Congress and has termed their claims as “empty politics”, is very important. According to local analysts, when a party has even the slightest possibility of a future alliance with someone, it avoids making such direct and sharp attacks on the opposition camp.

Mayawati has clearly said that these parties are ignoring the issues of public interest and are hiding this issue just to take advantage of the elections. His attack clearly indicates that BSP is not thinking of becoming a part of SP-Congress alliance or India Bloc this time.

Closeness to BJP or ‘go alone’ policy? What do analysts say?

According to political analysts, if Mayawati contests alone or takes a soft stance towards BJP, then the vote bank equations of Uttar Pradesh are hidden behind it. Let us understand how the political equations of the state can remain in both these situations:

• If contesting alone (three-cornered contest): If BSP contests alone on all the seats, the contest in Uttar Pradesh will become triangular. Analysts believe that in such a situation, dispersion of Dalit, Muslim and OBC votes is certain. The alliance of SP and Congress may have to bear the direct loss because the opposition’s vote bank will be divided among themselves. History is witness to the fact that whenever there has been a multi-cornered contest in UP, BJP has directly benefited from it.
• Possibility of soft stance or alliance towards BJP: Mayawati’s attack on the opposition parties and directly demanding an impartial investigation by the government and the SIT gives a message to the BJP’s core vote bank (Sanatani/Hindu voters) that she is not in favor of doing politics in the name of faith. Analysts believe that even if there is no formal alliance between BJP and BSP, BSP’s entry into the election field alone can prove to make the path easier for BJP behind the scenes.

Public interest vs faith: Mayawati’s new election pitch

The BSP chief has tried to draw a new line through his statement. On the one hand, while respecting the faith of the devotees, he raised questions on the role of the temple managers, and on the other hand, he put the opposition in the dock. According to analysts, Mayawati now wants to establish herself as a pivot that will neither completely flow into the BJP’s agenda nor match the tone of SP-Congress.

Now it remains to be seen what effect these statements of Mayawati have on the ground in the coming days. Will BSP really enter the field alone to regain its lost ground, or will we see a new alliance in UP politics? Only time will tell, but for now, Mayawati’s move has definitely increased the heartbeat of the opposition camp.