Middle East on the threshold of catastrophe: Agreement between America and Iran broken, is the world now moving towards the third world war?

The instability that has been going on in West Asia for the last four months has now reached such a point from where the path of return seems almost closed. It was expected that peace would be restored in the region through the ‘Islamabad Agreement’ signed in June, but within just two weeks this 60-day ceasefire has completely broken down. Today, West Asia is once again standing on a powder keg, from where the situation can go out of control at any moment and turn into a major regional or global war.

The bone of contention: oil and the game of agreements

At the center of this entire tension is the ‘Strait of Hormuz’, which is the most important route for global energy supply. Under the agreement signed on June 18, America had given limited permission to Iran to sell oil in the international market through ‘General License X’. In return, Iran had to curb its aggressive military stance. But, the equations changed after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Tuesday targeted oil tankers of Saudi Arabia and Qatar in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran argues that these ships ignored their warnings, but the US considers this a direct violation of the agreement.

American counterattack and bombing of Tehran

The American administration has shown a very strict attitude this time. Immediately after the attack, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) launched a campaign to destroy strategic targets inside Iran. According to reports, the US has targeted more than 80 Iranian military targets with precision weapons. These include air defense systems, command and control networks, coastal radar and anti-ship missiles. The most significant hit has been on Iran’s naval strength, where more than 60 of their small boats have been destroyed. Along with this, America has also withdrawn the exemption given to Iran to sell oil and has implemented ‘General License X1’, under which it has become impossible for Iran to trade in dollars.

missile attack on kuwait

The scope of this conflict has now spread beyond Iran to the Gulf countries. Frustrated by America’s retaliatory attacks, Iran has started targeting Kuwait. According to the Kuwaiti army, enemy missiles and drones have been spotted along the country’s borders. Air raid sirens have been sounded throughout Kuwait and citizens have been advised to remain in safe places. Although the Kuwaiti Army has clarified that the sounds of the explosions are the remains of missiles shot down by them in the sky, there is an atmosphere of fear among the citizens.

Deepening economic crisis in the world

This war has put the global economy in a new concern. 20% of the world’s crude oil passes through this Strait of Hormuz. Due to the conflict, the security of this route is at stake, which has a direct impact on the prices of crude oil. Brent crude has crossed $75 per barrel and WTI has crossed $71. If this tension continues like this, then a huge jump in fuel prices and major disruption in the global supply chain may be seen in the coming days.