Rebellion against BJP or plan to increase seats, why did Sanjay Nishad suddenly meet Shivpal?

With the 2027 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh approaching, the politics of seat sharing within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) also seems to be intensifying. Meanwhile, the meeting of Dr. Sanjay Nishad, National President of Nishad Party and Minister in the State Government, with senior Samajwadi Party leader Shivpal Singh Yadav has given rise to new discussions in the political circles. The conversation over tea during the meeting of the two leaders and the subsequent statement by Sanjay Nishad have raised many questions in political circles. After this meeting, Sanjay Nishad said that if Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) closes the door, then another place will have to be built somewhere.

Now the discussion is whether Nishad Party is actually indicating distance from BJP or it is a strategic exercise to increase its share in seat sharing before the 2027 elections. Political analysts believe that allies often give such political signals before elections to convey the message of their strength, so that better bargaining can be done in seat sharing.

Political discussion intensified after meeting Shivpal

After Dr. Sanjay Nishad’s meeting with Shivpal Singh Yadav, a round of discussions started in both the opposition and the ruling party. Although it was described as a formal meeting, political implications are being drawn from this meeting in the election environment. It is believed that Nishad Party wants to give a message to the BJP leadership that it also has political options.

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According to sources, Nishad Party is demanding about 20 assembly seats from BJP this time. In the 2022 assembly elections, BJP had given 11 seats to Nishad Party. In these five seats, candidates contested on BJP’s election symbol lotus, while on other seats, candidates contested on Nishad Party’s election symbol. Now the party claims that its organization has become stronger than before, hence it should get more seats.

Nishad Party considers its strongest political hold in Purvanchal. The party has been continuously claiming its political presence in districts like Gorakhpur, Sant Kabirnagar, Maharajganj, Kushinagar, Deoria, Basti, Siddharthnagar, Azamgarh, Mau, Ballia, Ghazipur, Varanasi, Chandauli, Jaunpur, Ambedkarnagar, Ayodhya, Prayagraj, Mirzapur, Bhadohi and Pratapgarh. Due to the good population of Nishad, Mallah, Bind, Kevat, Kashyap, Manjhi and other related communities living on the river banks in these areas, the party considers them as its traditional support base.

How big is Nishad vote bank?

The combined population of Nishad, Mallah, Kevat, Bind, Kashyap, Manjhi and other related communities in Uttar Pradesh is considered to be around 4 to 7 percent in various political estimates. This vote bank is in a position to decide victory or defeat in many assembly seats of Purvanchal. This is the reason why all the major parties including BJP, Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Congress try to include this class with themselves.

On one hand BJP wants to keep its allies together and on the other hand it is a challenge for it to maintain the claims of its leaders and organizational balance. If the number of seats of Nishad Party is increased, it may affect other allies and local leaders of BJP as well. In such a situation, the final decision on seat sharing is likely to be taken only when the elections come closer.

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Not rebellion, bargaining strategy?

Political experts believe that at present the attitude of Nishad Party should not be seen as a declaration of separation from BJP. This is being considered as a strategy of pressure politics and political bargaining to get more seats. Now everyone’s eyes will be on the upcoming meetings between BJP and Nishad Party, because these meetings will decide what will be the mathematics of seats in NDA and how big a political share Nishad Party gets in the 2027 elections.