Before the upcoming assembly elections to be held in 5 states of the country including Uttar Pradesh, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has once again intensified its efforts to woo its traditional and core vote bank i.e. the upper caste community. In the last one week, amid reports of alleged resentment among the upper castes within the party, the Central Government has taken two very important and strategic decisions back-to-back. The first of these decisions is related to the form of Caste Census, while the second decision is related to the equity rules of the University Grants Commission (UGC).
Understand the complete chronology of 2 big decisions
1. No separate classification of sub-castes in caste census: In the draft census recently released by the Central Government, it has been decided not to divide the castes into different sub-castes. Political analysts believe that through this step an attempt has been made to maintain the social unity of the upper caste society by preventing any kind of disunity within it. However, political analyst Yogendra Yadav says that due to lack of separate counting of sub-castes, accurate and detailed socio-economic data of the society will not be available. Earlier, a similar method was adopted in the Socio-Economic Survey of 2012, in which about 47 lakh castes were recorded.
2. Rethinking UGC Equity Policy 2026: The second major step has been taken regarding the UGC Equity Rules 2026. During an important hearing in the Supreme Court on Thursday, the Central Government made its stand clear and said that it is reconsidering this policy. In fact, there was a long resentment regarding this policy among the students of upper caste community and general category. He believed that these new rules may create difficulties at the administrative and academic level for the general category students studying in higher educational institutions and universities. With this stand of the government, a clear message has been given to calm the concerns of the upper castes.
After all, why is BJP targeting the upper castes?
Assembly elections are proposed in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur, Goa and Punjab. BJP governments are currently working in four of these states. Uttar Pradesh is the largest state in the country, where BJP is working on the target of winning power for the third consecutive time by making a hat-trick. Since the inception of the party, the upper caste community has been considered the strongest core voter of BJP. In such a situation, the unwanted presence of upper castes in any electoral state can spoil the party's mathematics.
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How effective is the upper caste vote bank in Uttar Pradesh?
In the political equations of Uttar Pradesh, the upper caste i.e. general class population is considered to be between 15 to 19 percent. According to the social fabric, the share of different classes in this is as follows:
- Brahmin Society: about 9 to 10 percent
- Rajput (Thakur) Society: about 5 percent
- Bhumihar Society: about 2 percent
- Vaishya (Bania) Society: about 2 percent
- Kayastha and other upper castes: remaining share
In a huge state like UP, this organized vote bank of about 19 percent has the ability to decide the victory or defeat of any political party.
Why are figures very important for BJP?
According to the post-poll survey of CSDS-Lokniti, about 79 percent of upper caste voters of Uttar Pradesh voted in favor of NDA in the general elections of 2024. Of the seats that the BJP alliance got in UP in this election, almost half of the MPs come from the upper caste community. These figures clearly show that the upper castes are not only the vote bank of BJP, but are also the main pillar of the party's organizational structure and parliamentary representation.
Historical electoral pattern of upper castes in UP politics
Uttar Pradesh has 80 Lok Sabha seats, which decide the political center of the country. Historically, the upper caste community has always been known for a lump-sum and disciplined voting pattern:
- 2007 assembly elections: BSP had formed a government with full majority by creating a social engineering formula of Dalits, Muslims and Brahmins.
- 2009 Lok Sabha elections: About 53 percent Brahmin voters supported BJP.
- 2012 assembly elections: There was a major reshuffle in the upper caste votes and the Samajwadi Party received unexpected upper caste support (about 19% Brahmin and additional 6% Rajput votes according to the survey), bringing the SP to power with 224 seats.
- 2014, 2017, 2019, 2022 and 2024: The upper castes once again voted unilaterally and heavily in favor of BJP.
History is witness to the fact that whenever there has been even a slight fragmentation in the upper caste vote bank, the political map of UP has changed. This is the reason that before entering the electoral fray, BJP does not want to let its strong base get scattered under any circumstances and both the recent decisions are considered to be an important link in this strategy.