Asim Waqar, who was the national spokesperson of All India Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), has given a big blow to Asaduddin Owaisi. He resigned from his post and party membership and now joined Congress at the behest of Imran Pratapgarhi. Asim Waqar was counted among the strong spokespersons of AIMIM, but now he has made it clear in a single gesture that Asaduddin Owaisi is the 'Team B' of the Bharatiya Janata Party. Asim Waqar's entry into Congress can be a loss deal for Samajwadi Party.
Asim Waqar is a famous leader. He also has deep influence in Muslim dominated district Bahraich. Not only in Bahraich, people know him in Muslim dominated districts of Awadh. A party like AIMIM may be limited in vote percentage and popularity, but this party is widely discussed in Muslim dominated areas. Asim Waqar is a big leader and his claims are also big. He can contest elections from Matera assembly seat.
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What is the mathematics of assembly seats of Bahraich district?
There are 7 assembly seats in Bahraich district. Balha, Nanpara, Matera, Mahsi, Bahrach, Pagpur and Kaiserganj. Saroj Sonkar is the MLA from Balha. Ram Niwas Verma from Nanpara, Marya Shah from Matera, Sureshwar Singh from Mahsi, Anupama Jaiswal from Bahrach Sadar, Subhash Tripathi from Payagpur and Anand Kumar Yadav from Kaiserganj are MLAs. BJP is on 4 seats, Apna Dal (S) on 1 and Samajwadi Party on 2.
How powerful is the 'Shah' family in Bahraich?
Bahraich Sadar and Matera assembly is the stronghold of veteran Samajwadi Party leader Waqar Ahmed Shah. One of the most influential families here is the 'Shah' family. Not just one or two, Waqar Ahmed Shah has been MLA from Bahraich Sadar seat for 5 consecutive times. He had also been a cabinet minister in the Akhilesh Yadav government. He died in the year 2018 due to blood cancer. Yassar Shah's mother Rubaba has also been the MP of Bahraich. He died in February 2024.
His son Yasser Shah is contesting the 2022 elections. He lost his seat to Anupama Jaiswal. Anupama Jaiswal has also been a minister in the Yogi government. Yasar Shah himself has been elected MLA from Matera Assembly twice. In 2022, Waqar Ahmed lost to Anupama Jaiswal but his wife Maria Shah won the election from Matera seat.
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How can Asim Waqar spoil the equation?
Now Asim Waqar also wants to enter the battle of Bahraich. He can contest elections from Matera assembly seat. If not Matera then Bahraich Sadar. Both the seats belong to Ahmed Shah family. Samajwadi Party has a strong claim on both the seats, but this time also Congress and Samajwadi Party want to contest the elections in alliance. Congress is also emphasizing on those seats where minority voters are strong. Asim Waqar is of the same temperament as the strong minority leader that Congress needed in UP.
How powerful is the Shah family in Bahraich?
Imagine how strong a family will be if the first and second generations continue to be MPs and MLAs. The condition of Shah family is also similar. This family has been involved in both state and national level politics. From 1993 to 2017, Waqar Ahmed Shah was active in politics. He has been from district president to member of the assembly. He was also a cabinet minister in the state during the tenure of President APJ Abdul Kalam and Pranab Mukherjee.
Waqar Ahmed Shah's wife Rubab Syeda has also been an MP from Bahraich. After his demise, now his son Yasser Shah and daughter-in-law Maryam Shah are also playing an active role in politics. Mariam Shah is currently a member of the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly.
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- Waqar Ahmed Shah: Waqar Ahmed Shah was born on 6 July 1943 in Qazipura, North Bahraich. He continued to hold different seats in the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly from 1993 to 2017. He was also a minister in the state government and also a cabinet minister. He was also the Deputy Speaker of UP Assembly. After Azam Khan, he was counted among the second minority leaders in the party. Waqar Ahmed Shah died on 15 April 2018 in a hospital in Lucknow due to bladder cancer. His wife later took over his political legacy.
- Rubab Syeda: Rubab Syeda, wife of Waqar Ahmed Shah, was born on 15 June 1950 in Meerut. She was first a teacher, then came into politics. In 1995 she was elected President of Bahraich District Panchayat. After this, in 2004, she was elected from Bahraich seat for the 14th Lok Sabha on Samajwadi Party ticket. Was MP from 2004 to 2009. She was a member of the Industry Committee of the Lok Sabha and was made a member of the Information Technology Committee on 5 August 2007. Rubab Syeda died on 6 February 2024 in Aligarh. Even before his death, his sons had become active in politics.
- Yasser Shah: Yassar Shah, son of Waqar Ahmed Shah and Rubab Syeda, has been the Transport Minister with independent charge in Uttar Pradesh. He had contested the elections from Bahraich Sadar in the year 2022 but could not win. Anupama Jaiswal could win by only 4,078 votes. Once again his claim is being considered strong.
- Mariam Shah: She is the wife of Yasar Shah and is an MLA from Matera seat of Bahraich. Asim Waqar is also claiming this seat. Earlier Yasar Shah was the MLA from this seat. Maryam Shah will contest from this seat in March 2022. BJP's Arun Veer Singh had contested against him. Maria Shah's performance in the elections was so strong that she defeated even the fierce Yogi-Modi wave by 10,428 votes. Now there is a fear that the Shah family may have to compromise on this seat.
Why is Congress looking at Asim Waqar with hope?
Asim Waqar is a strong voice of minorities. He was the national spokesperson of AIMIM and was associated with the party since 2017. On Wednesday, he left AIMIM and joined Congress. On one hand, Asaduddin Owaisi was busy preparing for the assembly elections to be held in 2027, on the other hand he got a big shock. Asim Waqar is often seen in TV debates and was also popular as the spokesperson of AIMIM. He has alleged that AIMIM is working as the B-team of BJP.
Asim Waqar is saying that he joined AIMIM thinking that AIMIM is a secular party and is fighting against BJP, but later realized that the party is fighting against its political opponents more than BJP. He believes that Congress is fighting to save democracy. One who works against Congress actually helps BJP. Asim Waqar started his political career from Samajwadi Party. Was with Samajwadi Party for 20 years, then AIMIM and now Congress. This is considered a big achievement for UP Congress.
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How strong is the mathematics of minority vote multiplication in UP?
Both Congress and Samajwadi Party have been parties sympathetic towards minorities. If analyzed on the basis of 2011 census, there are 143 seats in UP where Muslim voters are in a position to influence the elections. The Muslim population in the state is more than 19 percent but there are more than 70 such seats where Muslim voters are in a strong position.
In districts like Rampur, Moradabad, Sambhal, Amroha, Bijnor, Saharanpur, Nagina, Muzaffarnagar and Kairana, the Muslim population is more than 30 percent. There are more than 50 percent Muslims in Rampur, more than 50 percent in Moradabad and more than 43 percent in Bijnor. Even in areas like Muzaffar Nagar, Amroha, 40 percent of the population is Muslim.
A Samajwadi Party spokesperson, on condition of anonymity, said that the number of Muslim voters is decisive in Bahraich, Balrampur, Shravasti and Siddharthnagar also. Asim Waqar has been doing minority politics only, hence he is a popular face of Muslims. Now Congress will not want to upset him by not giving him the ticket. If Samajwadi Party is ready to field him from this seat then the 'Shah' family will have to be satisfied.