India’s onion prices have risen sharply in recent weeks, with retail prices crossing ₹60 a kg and touching ₹70 a kg in some markets. Yet the country is estimated to have produced 307.37 lakh tonnes of onions in 2025-26, almost the same as the 307.67 lakh tonnes produced the previous year.
So, if India has produced enough onions, why are consumers suddenly paying much more? The answer lies not just in how much the country produces, but in when that produce reaches the market, how much survives storage and how quickly fresh supplies arrive.
At Lasalgaon, Maharashtra, one of India’s key onion markets, the average wholesale price touched ₹44 a kg on September 1, after being around ₹38 just days earlier. The all-India average onion price had also climbed sharply compared with the same period last year.
Price shock
The price rise has not been uniform across the country. On September 5, onion was retailing at Rs 58 per kg in Delhi, Rs 53 per kg in Mumbai, Rs 63 per kg in Chennai and Rs 40 per kg in Ranchi, while the average wholesale price stood at Rs 42.79 per kg.
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Agriculture and rural affairs journalist Harish Damodaran says the bigger concern is not simply rising prices but the volatility itself. “What is undesirable is volatility, which is not good either for the consumer or the producer,” he said.
The onion market is particularly vulnerable to such volatility because the onions being sold today may have been harvested several months earlier.
Onion calendar
India does not harvest onions uniformly throughout the year. The crop broadly comes in three seasons — kharif, late kharif and rabi.
Kharif onions are sown in June-July and generally arrive between October and November. Late kharif onions are sown around September-October and arrive in January-February. Rabi onions are sown in October-November and harvested mainly in April-May.
The rabi crop is the most important of the three. According to Damodaran, it accounts for roughly 60% of India’s onion production. Harvested during the relatively dry months of April and May, rabi onions can also be stored and released gradually into the market.
That makes the rabi crop a crucial bridge between the April-May harvest and the arrival of the next major kharif crop. It normally supplies the market for several months, roughly until October. But this year, that bridge appears to have weakened.
The missing rabi buffer
Damodaran believes onions may have been sold too quickly during the rabi marketing period, when prices had crashed. “My feeling is at that time, it got oversold and everything got sold. So, it didn’t get stocked,” he said.
That creates a problem several months later. If farmers sell their onions instead of storing them, there is less produce available to bridge the gap between one harvest and the next.
Weather may have compounded the problem. Rain during the rabi harvest can increase moisture in onions, while heat and humidity during June and July can accelerate spoilage in storage.
This is why production figures alone do not tell the full story. India’s second advance estimate for 2025-26 puts onion production at 307.37 lakh tonnes, almost unchanged from 307.67 lakh tonnes in 2024-25.
But onions can be sold early, damaged after harvest or deteriorate during storage. The timing of market arrivals matters just as much as the annual production figure. In other words, India can have enough onions on paper and still face a shortage of marketable onions during a particular period.
Buffer stock
The Union government uses its onion buffer stock to deal with precisely this kind of price volatility.
For 2026-27, the government set a target of procuring 2 lakh tonnes of rabi onions for the Price Stabilisation Fund. Procurement began through NAFED and NCCF on May 15, with around 1.21 lakh tonnes procured by late August.
The government began releasing buffer onions into the market from August 24. It has been selling them at ₹35 per kg through NCCF, NAFED, Kendriya Bhandar and mobile vans.
The government has also expanded the intervention through the Kanda Express, moving onions by rail from producing regions to major consumption centres. The first rake reached Delhi, while another consignment subsequently reached Chennai.
The intervention has now been expanded to multiple cities, using both railway rakes and road transport to move buffer onions closer to consumers.
The supply puzzle
But can a few targeted consignments actually change the national onion market?
The government maintains that overall availability remains comfortable. Its production estimate of 307.37 lakh tonnes is almost identical to the previous year’s figure. It has also said that onion exports between April and June 2026 were around 3.82 lakh tonnes.
That points to a more complicated problem than a straightforward national shortage.
Stored onions may have been depleted or damaged, while the next crop may not be arriving quickly enough. At the same time, weather, sowing patterns and market behaviour can amplify price movements.
The result is a gap between overall production and the amount of onions available to consumers at a particular time and place.
The October test
The immediate question is when prices will ease.
Normally, the arrival of the next kharif crop should bring more onions into the market from October onwards. But this year’s kharif crop is another uncertainty, with delayed arrivals from southern states linked to late sowing.
That means the coming weeks will be crucial. If fresh arrivals increase as expected, prices could begin to ease. But if arrivals remain delayed or weather affects the crop, volatility could continue.
Also read | ‘Kanda Express’ to bring 800 tonnes of onions to Delhi as prices soar
The onion story, therefore, is not simply about whether India has produced enough onions. It is about timing, storage, weather, crop arrivals and how effectively the government can intervene.
There is also an important distinction between what consumers pay and what farmers earn. When retail prices suddenly rise, farmers do not necessarily benefit. They may have already sold their crop months earlier, before the price surge reaches consumers.
That is perhaps the central problem with India’s onion economy: producing enough is only part of the challenge. The larger task is ensuring that the right quantity reaches the market at the right time without destroying the incentive for farmers to grow onions.
So, will onion prices fall after October? The next crop’s arrival, the weather and the government’s buffer stocks could hold the answer.