Estimates compiled by Bloomberg from banks and research firms indicate that the revisions could increase Thailand’s projected GDP growth for 2026 by 0.2–0.3 percentage points.
Kiatnakin Phatra Securities has raised its forecast to around 2.8% from 2.5%. Krungthai Compass, Krung Thai Bank Pcl’s research arm, now predicts 2.6%, compared with 2.3% previously, while Standard Chartered has increased its estimate to about 2.3% from 2.1%.
Despite these adjustments, Thailand is still expected to record the weakest growth among Southeast Asia’s major economies, Reuters reported.
The IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook, unveiled during the IMF-World Bank Group Annual Meetings in Bangkok, forecasts Vietnam’s economy to expand by 8.4%, three times Thailand’s projected pace. Malaysia is expected to grow by 5.2%, Indonesia by 5.1%, Singapore by 5% and the Philippines by 3.4%.
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A worker unloads bagged produce from the back of a truck in Bangkok, Thailand on November 5, 2026. Photo by Middle East Images via AFP |
Booming electronics exports and investment tied to AI are strengthening headline growth, but the benefits have yet to spread widely. High household debt and weak consumer demand remain a drag on domestic activity.
“The revision raises the measured level of growth but not its breadth,” said Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, emerging Asia economist at Kiatnakin Phatra Securities. “The larger part of the economy, consumption and services, is still held back by weak household finances, so a stronger GDP print should not be read as a broad-based reacceleration.”
The reassessment follows an overhaul of Thailand’s manufacturing production index to include newer factories and fast-growing products linked to AI and data centers, including laptops, optical transceivers and backup power equipment.
Exports of those three product groups totaled about 802 billion baht (US$24 billion) last year, accounting for more than 7% of Thailand’s shipments.
Erica Tay, an economist at Maybank Securities, estimates the changes could lift reported growth by 0.2 percentage points in 2024, 0.5 points in 2025 and 0.6 points in the first half of 2026. She said the revisions would narrow Thailand’s growth gap with other economies benefiting from the global AI supply chain.
Goldman Sachs Group estimates that first-half GDP growth could be revised to 2.9% from 2.4% if the newly measured factory output had previously been left out of the national accounts, according to Nation Thailand.
Standard Chartered economist Tim Leelahaphan said the potential GDP upgrade would give policymakers too little reason to raise interest rates.
Most research firms are waiting until Nov. 16 to raise their growth forecasts, when Thailand’s economic planning agency is due to release third-quarter GDP figures and new projections. The Finance Ministry will offer an earlier indication when it updates its economic forecasts on Nov. 9.