New Delhi .Amidst the high prices of crude oil in the international market, there is a possibility of getting major relief in the coming time. At present, the price of Brent Crude is trading around $ 110 per barrel, while the physical price of Dated Brent, scheduled for delivery next month, has reached above $ 130 per barrel. However, in the coming months, prices may soften due to improvement in oil supply and changing balance between demand and supply.
According to the latest estimate by Goldman Sachs Research, Brent crude may remain at the level of $ 90 per barrel in December 2026. This estimate is higher than the bank's earlier forecast of $85 per barrel. Despite this, the average price of crude oil is expected to fall to $ 80 per barrel in the year 2027. This decline will depend on the gradual removal of oil supply constraints in West Asia.
According to Dan Struven, co-head of Global Commodity Research and head of oil research, oil supplies in West Asia were affected due to the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. Now there is a possibility of gradual recovery from this disruption. If oil exports normalize and market availability increases, pressure on international prices may ease. However, if tensions in the region increase again, prices may rise again sharply.
The report also mentioned the improvement in oil exports from the Persian Gulf as important. According to available estimates, export levels since the end of September have remained around the 2025 average. This calculation also includes an estimate of oil export of about 40 lakh barrels per day, the actual movement of which is not clearly recorded. This includes transportation by tankers whose movements are difficult to trace due to their transponders being switched off.
The narrowing gap between demand and supply in the oil market is also affecting the future estimation of prices. According to the report, in March the demand was 72 lakh barrels per day more than the supply, but by September this gap reduced to only three lakh barrels per day. Increased production and weak demand outside the Persian Gulf have played a role in narrowing the gap.
On this basis, it has been estimated that the global oil market may reach a state of surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026. Even in the year 2027, the supply in the market is likely to exceed demand. If that happens, the additional availability could help bring down prices. Additionally, the significant shortfall in demand caused by the Iran-related conflict is also expected to be largely eliminated by the fourth quarter of 2027.
However, risks remain, with the potential for price declines. Crude oil may remain expensive for a long time due to re-escalation of tension in West Asia, impact on supply or rise in prices again. Therefore, the estimate of $ 80 per barrel is not a definite outcome, but an assessment based on current conditions and possible supply improvements in the future.