New Delhi. India's gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to grow at 7.7 per cent year-on-year in Q3FY27 (October-December period). During this period, Gross Value Added (GVA) may increase at the rate of 8.1 percent. This information was given in the report released by BofA (Bank of America) Global Research on Thursday.
BofA estimated that India's growth rate could be 7.4 percent for the entire FY27 and it could increase to 7.5 percent on an annual basis in FY28. The report said India will register this growth despite global supply-side challenges such as disruptions in West Asia, uneven monsoon and weakness in the agricultural sector and reflects the strength of the country's economy.
It also said that along with strong industrial and manufacturing activities, sustained consumer demand and growth in credit will continue to support the country's economic growth.
According to the report, the manufacturing sector is expected to grow by about 12 percent due to strong industrial activities. The growth rate of IIP (Index of Industrial Production) has increased from 6.2 percent in the second quarter to 7.3 percent in the third quarter. At the same time, auto sales, electricity demand and freight movement remain strong, while bank credit growth remains at around 20 percent.
The report said, “We expect GDP growth in the first half of fiscal year 2027 to average 7.7 percent on an annual basis, which is slightly lower than the annual growth rate of 8.1 percent in the second half of fiscal year 2026. We are estimating GDP growth for the entire fiscal year 2027 to be 7.4 percent on an annual basis, but there is a possibility of a slight increase in it. Is.”
Nominal GDP growth for the second quarter of FY 2027 is estimated at 13.9 percent year-on-year, which will be the highest nominal growth in the last four years.
The report said that the pace of growth in India seems to be quite strong, although the obstacles or risks coming in it are mainly of global level. There has been some decline in oil prices recently, but the geopolitical situation still remains uncertain. If oil prices remain high through 2027, risks to growth could rise again.
According to the report, higher oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty, possible weakness in the rural economy due to 'El Nino', and further interest rate hike by the RBI, all these factors could pose risks to growth.