As soon as the MLC election process begins, ‘equations’, ‘mathematics’ and ‘games’ begin, Tejashwi should not get stuck!

Candidates will try their luck on 10 seats of Bihar Legislative Council. Of these ten seats, elections are to be held on nine and by-elections on one which has become vacant after Nitish Kumar went to Rajya Sabha. There are still four years left on Nitish Kumar’s seat, hence by-election is going to be held on it. Nitish Kumar’s son Nishant Kumar may or may not contest from this seat. Nitish’s son Nishant is currently the Health Minister in Bihar and if he has to contest the Assembly elections in 2030, then he can be made to contest from Nitish’s seat and if not, then he will be made to contest from another seat so that his tenure lasts for 6 years. Now just understand how the equation of seats will work in this. If there is a by-election on Nitish’s seat then its process is different. Due to the huge majority in the Legislative Assembly, this seat is confirmed for NDA. Let us tell you that this year, four seats of JDU, two of BJP and RJD and one seat of Congress are falling vacant, which means the tenure of the MLCs of these parties will end by June 28. BJP’s Samrat Chaudhary and Sanjay Mayukh, JDU’s Shri Bhagwan Singh Kushwaha, Ghulam Ghaus, Bhishan Sahni and Kumud Verma, RJD’s Sunil Kumar Singh and Mohammad Farooq and Congress’s Sameer Kumar Singh.

The game will be played on 9 seats!

The real game will be played on 9 seats with NDA’s victory certain on Nitish Kumar’s seat i.e. 10th seat. The number of members in the Assembly is 243, hence the rules are understood on the basis of 243. The basis of voting in elections is decided by the number of MLAs who cast their votes. If there are elections for 9 seats in the 243-seat Assembly, then as per the rules, the victory quota will be decided by the number of MLAs who cast their votes. Now let’s try to understand this election game, if 243 MLAs go to vote then multiply 243 by 100 and add one to the electoral seat number 9, i.e. divide by 10. By doing this the number comes to 2430. If we add 1 to this, the number will be 2431. The quota of votes for a candidate to win will be 2431. The value of one first preference vote of MLAs will be Rs 100. To win a seat, a candidate needs at least 2431 votes. One seat will emerge with the direct support of 25 MLAs.

What is JDU’s plan in MLC elections?

There are 202 members in the Legislative Assembly including BJP, JDU, LJP-R, HAM RLMO, then according to 25 MLAs, 200 NDA MLAs will win 8 seats by first preference vote. In the opposition, 25 MLAs of RJD, 6 MLAs of Congress, 2 CPI-ML and 1-1 MLA of IIP are part of the grand alliance. 5 MLAs of Asuddin Owaisi’s AIMIM and 1 MLA of BSP are also in opposition. There are 41 MLAs in the opposition, so one seat can be won by any candidate from the opposition through first preference vote. After winning 8 seats, the government will have the votes of 2 MLAs while the opposition will have the votes of 16 MLAs. With this, neither the ruling party can win the ninth seat nor the opposition can win the second seat. Now when the result of all the 9 seats will not be decided by the first preference vote, then those who got the quota votes will be declared victorious and the second round of counting will begin. Second preference votes will be added to the ballot of MLAs received by the candidate who won in the first round. In this process, the value of one second preference vote is fixed and added to it. The ruling party has only 2 extra votes in the Legislative Council elections. The opposition has 16 extra votes. The ruling party will not be able to cause such a big disruption in the opposition that it can take 2 to the value of 25. At the same time, there is not much possibility in the opposition that the MLAs of the ruling party will give it a second seat through second preference vote by crawl voting. Overall, the equation of Bihar Legislative Assembly shows that if the 10th candidate does not contest the elections for 9 seats, then NDA can win 8 seats and Grand Alliance can win 1 seat. And both the ruling party and the opposition have fielded the tenth candidate, then rest assured that the game is certain to take place.