Big earthquake in UP politics! Akhilesh claims defeat of 25 MPs, Rajbhar reveals the secret of ‘Amit Shah’s letter’

UP Political News: After the recent political rebellions within Shiv Sena (UBT) in Maharashtra and Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal, now discussions about a ‘Mahatoot’ have suddenly intensified in the political circles of Uttar Pradesh. The statements of NDA constituents have once again created an uproar in the politics of UP. But the biggest question is whether such a big split is really possible in Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP)? Let us understand in very simple language how much strength these big claims have between the current parliamentary mathematics, anti-defection law and the organizational hold of Akhilesh Yadav.

Big claims of Rajbhar and Keshav Maurya: ‘Letter written to Amit Shah’

Uttar Pradesh Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (Subhaspa) President Om Prakash Rajbhar are continuously claiming that many MPs and big leaders of SP may change sides very soon.

Om Prakash Rajbhar has made a big and sensational allegation saying that SP’s National General Secretary Ram Gopal Yadav has written a confidential letter to Union Home Minister Amit Shah. According to Rajbhar, this letter contains the names of all those MPs who want to join BJP. Not only this, while mentioning ‘Baaghi Ballia’, Rajbhar has also directly pointed towards the powerful SP MP Sanatan Pandey and has raised the political temperature to the seventh sky.

On the other hand, Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya has also given a big statement taking forward these claims of Rajbhar. Maurya said that about 25 to 26 MPs of SP are now completely ready to break away. We are not breaking them forcefully, rather they will break themselves and come to us after the 2027 assembly elections. Along with this, he sarcastically said that Akhilesh Yadav’s ‘cycle’ is no longer fit to run in the corridors of power of Uttar Pradesh.

Can Akhilesh Yadav’s SP really break?

Let us tell you that in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Samajwadi Party had emerged as the largest political party by winning 37 seats in Uttar Pradesh. In such a situation, political analysts believe that there are some strong reasons present on the ground, due to which there is little possibility of any kind of ‘split’ in SP or rebellion like Maharashtra’s Shiv Sena and Bengal’s TMC. Let’s take a look at those 5 big reasons:

Strict anti-defection law

Under the anti-defection law of the Indian Constitution, it is mandatory for at least two-thirds (2/3) of the MPs to rebel together for a legally valid split in any political party. If we understand this mathematics, then out of total 37 SP MPs, about 25 MPs will have to leave the party together. Bringing together such a large number of leaders, getting their consent and then getting them to change sides is a very difficult task, practically like chewing an iron gram.

Strong family control over corps command

Even today, the Yadav family has direct and strong control over all important posts and major decisions within the Samajwadi Party. Along with party supremo Akhilesh Yadav himself, strong family faces like Dimple Yadav, Dharmendra Yadav, Aditya Yadav and Akshay Yadav are present in the Lok Sabha as a shield. The presence of these family faces in Parliament acts as a very strong shield to prevent any outside intrusion.

Political compulsion and loyalty of new MPs

Most of the SP MPs who won the 2024 general elections are those who have reached the country’s Parliament after being elected for the first time. Whatever political identity and grassroots influence these leaders have, it is directly linked to the face of Akhilesh Yadav and SP’s election symbol ‘cycle’. In such a situation, leaving the party today would directly mean that he would put his own political identity and credibility at the grassroots level at great risk.

Strong social base of PDA

During the distribution of tickets in the last election, Akhilesh Yadav had very wisely placed a big bet on Dalit, OBC and Muslim category candidates, which was completely successful. At present, it is not at all easy for the MPs elected to Parliament from these communities to join the BJP or NDA, both ideologically and in terms of regional politics. The biggest reason for this is that their main core voters are completely of anti-BJP mentality.

no parallel power center

At present, there is no other rival leader of Akhilesh Yadav’s stature or competition within the Samajwadi Party. After the big family crisis of 2017 and ultimately the return home of uncle Shivpal Yadav, Akhilesh Yadav has made his hold on the entire party and organization completely impenetrable and strong. Therefore, there does not seem to be any scope for any kind of major parallel rebellion within the party.