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New Delhi: Periodic assessments and surveys conducted by the BJP at multiple levels and through different agencies indicate that the party is in a favourable position in around 200 of Uttar Pradesh’s 403 Assembly constituencies, according to party sources. The assessments, which are part of the party’s ongoing exercise to gauge its electoral prospects, also point to several challenges that the BJP will have to address ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections.
The Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections are expected to be held in February-March 2027, ahead of the end of the Assembly’s term in May 2027.
With 403 seats in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly, a party or alliance needs 202 seats to form the government. The internal assessment suggesting that the BJP is favourably placed in around 200 constituencies is therefore significant, as it indicates that the party is currently close to, but has not yet crossed, the majority mark in its own electoral calculations.
The surveys have identified anti-incumbency after two consecutive terms in power as one of the challenges facing the BJP. There is also resentment among certain sections of the Hindu community over decisions taken by the Central government, including those related to the University Grants Commission (UGC), sources said.
Another concern flagged by party leaders is the growing perception among party workers that the administration is largely being run by bureaucrats, leaving elected representatives and grassroots workers struggling to get their work done. Party workers have reportedly complained that bureaucratic control over the administration has made it difficult for them to address local grievances and get routine work executed.
Despite these challenges, the personal popularity of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath remains strong, sources said. However, party leaders believe that his popularity alone cannot guarantee electoral performance across a state as geographically large as Uttar Pradesh, where local concerns and political dynamics vary considerably from one region to another.
The electoral performance of the BJP in the last two Assembly elections and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls provides an important backdrop to these assessments.
In the 2017 Assembly elections, the BJP secured 312 of the 403 seats, giving it a commanding majority. The party returned to power in 2022, winning 255 seats, a decline of 57 seats from its previous performance.
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections, however, presented a more difficult picture for the BJP in the state.
The party’s tally fell from 62 seats in Uttar Pradesh in 2019 to 33 in 2024. The Samajwadi Party emerged as the largest party in the state with 37 seats, while the Congress won six. The combined tally of the two opposition parties stood at 43 seats, compared with the BJP’s 33.
The 2024 results have added another dimension to the BJP’s assessment of the political situation in Uttar Pradesh. The Samajwadi Party and Congress contested the Lok Sabha elections together under the INDIA alliance and managed to improve their performance substantially compared with 2019.
BJP’S assessments suggest that if the two parties maintain their understanding and work out a strategically coordinated alliance for the 2027 Assembly elections, the BJP could face a more difficult contest.
The possibility of a more coordinated opposition challenge is another factor weighing on the BJP’s electoral calculations. A strategically planned seat-sharing arrangement between the SP and Congress, accompanied by effective coordination at the constituency level, could make the contest more challenging for the BJP.
The challenges facing the BJP are not limited to rural constituencies. Sources said the party is also encountering resentment in urban areas, where it has traditionally enjoyed considerable support. This suggests that the dissatisfaction identified in the assessments is not confined to any one geographical or electoral segment.
Candidate selection is likely to be another major exercise ahead of the elections. Of the BJP’s current strength of 257 MLAs in the Assembly, around 80 are expected to be denied tickets or dropped in 2027, according to sources. The party had also undertaken a substantial reshuffle in candidate selection ahead of the 2022 Assembly elections, when it reportedly denied tickets to around 100 sitting MLAs.
The BJP’s own assessments appear to recognise that a strong central leadership and the popularity of the Chief Minister may not, by themselves, be sufficient to overcome localised anti-incumbency or a consolidated opposition.