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The Centre’s push for the Delimitation Amendment Bill could potentially isolate the Congress and reshape India’s political landscape.
If the government succeeds in passing the Delimitation Amendment Bill during the Monsoon Session of Parliament—which begins on Monday—the Opposition’s future political path will become extremely difficult. Congress could suffer its biggest blow and it also appears to be at risk of becoming isolated. When history is written, Congress’s top leader, Rahul Gandhi, will likely be held responsible for the Opposition’s plight. The very existence of the Congress party could be imperilled; by the 2029 general elections, the party could be significantly weakened. Some senior Congress leaders privately admit that after the new delimitation, elections might lose their significance, as the entire landscape could become one-sided.
In fact, Rahul Gandhi and his strategists made critical errors—such as taking state elections lightly, neglecting the organisational structure, and, most importantly, abandoning a long-standing ally like the DMK on the advice of novice consultants—that could plunge the Congress into a major crisis. Although it may be too late, the situation could still shift if Rahul Gandhi manages to win back the DMK. However, the government is fully alert and actively working to secure new allies; efforts are underway to bring both Sharad Pawar’s NCP and the DMK into the fold. Sources indicate that Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav might also support the bill at the last minute to prevent a split in his party; doing so would keep the party united at least until the Assembly elections. The government is, in any case, working on every aspect of the situation.
Although the government has not included the Delimitation Bill in the agenda for the first week, sources indicate that it could be introduced at any moment once final talks with the DMK conclude; prior inclusion in the agenda is not strictly necessary. Sources suggest that the DMK signalled on Friday that they would extend their support if the government safeguards the interests of southern states.
The government has consistently maintained that no state will face discrimination and that a “50% formula” will apply across all states. This implies that an additional number of seats—equal to half of the current tally—will be added to each state’s existing count. For instance, Tamil Nadu currently holds 39 Lok Sabha seats; under the new delimitation, approximately 19 more seats (half of 39) would be added, bringing the total to 59. Union Home Minister Amit Shah had previously stated during the discussion on the Amendment Bill (introduced during the Budget Session) that the government intends to increase the number of seats in every state by 50%. By incorporating this provision into the draft of the upcoming amendment bill, the government aims to win over the DMK.
Should this materialise, a shift in the Samajwadi Party’s stance might also be observed, as the Congress party’s current behavior suggests an inevitable breakdown of its alliance with the SP. SP leader Akhilesh Yadav is also aware that the BJP could potentially poach members from his party at any time; rumours regarding a split within the SP are constantly circulating—or being deliberately fuelled. Uttar Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya and various other leaders have repeatedly claimed that SP leaders are in contact with them; in a sense, the atmosphere has already been primed for such a move.
Given the fragmentation witnessed within the TMC following its crushing defeat in Bengal, it is impossible to predict who might defect or where they might go next.
To safeguard his party, SP leader Akhilesh Yadav might well adopt a strategy similar to Sharad Pawar’s NCP—meaning the SP could also extend its support based on the 50% seat-increase formula. This would grant the government a majority exceeding two-thirds; indeed, with the backing of the NCP (Pawar faction), DMK, YSRCP, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, and smaller parties, the government is already well-positioned. They will easily cross the 360-seat mark; the Congress will not be able to stop them.
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