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The November 1 Ramlila Maidan rally could test the Congress campaign’s reach amid questions over its support among Congress workers and opposition allies.
The ‘vote theft’ allegation raised by the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, against the NDA government has remained confined to Delhi. Over the past two weeks, the Congress attempted to build momentum to destabilise the government; however, due to a lack of overt public support, the movement has stayed restricted to the national capital.
State units of the Congress have merely gone through the motions, and there is little enthusiasm even within the party. A primary reason for this appears to be that Rahul is placing more trust in leaders from other parties than in his own party members. It seems unlikely that the movement will be long-lasting, though Rahul Gandhi may occasionally demonstrate his involvement.
The future trajectory of the movement will likely be determined by the rally scheduled for November 1 at Ramlila Maidan. The responsibility for mobilising a crowd for this event rests squarely with the Congress, as other constituents of the ‘INDIA’ bloc are unlikely to show much interest. The stance taken by the Samajwadi Party—a key member of the INDIA bloc—regarding the rally will serve as an indicator of the movement’s actual strength. Observers suggest that Rahul Gandhi has found himself in a difficult position, partly due to the influence of inexperienced advisors and his sister, Priyanka Gandhi, as the current political strategy appears to yield no tangible benefits.
The political approach adopted by the Congress of late has left even the party’s senior, veteran leaders perplexed and concerned. Rahul and Priyanka have taken it upon themselves to carry out tasks that should ideally be handled by other political figures—and they are doing so over issues that have proven politically ineffective. It appears to be little more than a pursuit for media attention.
By impulsively declaring that this movement would lead to a change in power, the Congress has trapped itself; the current national climate is not one characterised by widespread public outrage. Party spokesperson Pawan Khera’s remark on “changing the regime” appeared to be influenced by a 29-year-old student leader from AISA (All India Students’ Association). The Congress, however, maintains that they intend to change the government through elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, too, had once made a similar statement about “changing the government” back when he was in the opposition. In 2011, Modi had remarked that had his hands not been tied, he would have launched a battle against the central government.
The Congress, it seems, fails to grasp that there was no ongoing protest movement when Modi made that statement—whereas the Congress is currently engaged in a protest in Delhi.
Observers believe that the Congress has fallen into a trap by aligning itself with Neha Bora. Neha Bora became active in politics two years ago upon becoming the president of AISA. Within the 140-year-old Congress party, leaders like Rahul Gandhi and his sister Priyanka have chosen to promote figures like Neha Bora, side-lining their own experienced leaders. While NSUI national president Vinod Jakhar was seen struggling amidst the crowd below, Neha Bora stood on the stage alongside Rahul and Priyanka.
Rahul Gandhi’s decision to rely on ‘outsider’ politicians rather than his own party members is being viewed as surprising. A statement by Neha Bora—in which she expressed support for the coup in Bangladesh and suggested that a similar movement could be used to topple the government in India—could prove damaging to the Congress party. Neha’s strategy is clear: she is willing to go to any lengths to advance her political career rapidly. She first gained attention for making anti-Hindu remarks and statements in support of terrorists. Later, she grabbed headlines by making inflammatory comments and staging a hunger strike during the ‘paper leak’ protests.
Following the conclusion of those protests, Rahul Gandhi aligned himself with Neha Bora to attack the government. Subsequently, however, Neha Bora opposed the Congress party during the Delhi University Students’ Union (DUSU) elections.
The defeat at Delhi University dealt a significant blow to Rahul Gandhi and the Congress. It is even possible that Rahul Gandhi might entrust Neha Bora with a position within the organization in the near future—a move that suggests he places less trust in his own loyalists.
Furthermore, the Congress party launched a protest against Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar, citing a report published in an English-language newspaper. The agitation remained confined to Delhi. To ensure a turnout, Rahul Gandhi had to summon party leaders and workers from across the country to the capital, appealing to his allies for support. Ultimately, however, the effort amounted to little more than a single day’s news headline. Rahul Gandhi’s campaign against the Election Commission failed to garner open support from his allies; only Sanjay Raut and Supriya Sule from Maharashtra were seen, while the Samajwadi Party sent a junior-level representative. Although Akhilesh Yadav did make a brief appearance at the one-day protest, he showed little genuine interest. Meanwhile, in Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party appears to have no issues with the Election Commission. In reality, while Rahul Gandhi has launched a campaign, he has chosen an issue that is unlikely to have much longevity. This is partly because the ‘Cockroach Janata Party’ (a derogatory term used here to mock a rival political entity) is attempting to establish itself as a parallel force.
Furthermore, his allies do not find this particular issue appealing. While it may serve to keep him in the news and in the headlines, it offers no discernible political advantage. The five states heading to the polls—Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, and Manipur—present a different picture: in Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party has no interest in the narrative of ‘vote theft’; in Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party is focusing on local issues; and in the remaining three states, the topic of ‘vote theft’ is not even being discussed.