Deepening crisis of climate change: impact of war, sea temperatures and ‘western waves’ on India

Lucknow April…, 2026 The month of April, which was once considered a symbol of the pleasant feeling of spring, has today become an indicator of scorching heat of 40–43°C. In North India, especially Lucknow, Delhi, Rajasthan and the central Ganga plains, this temperature is no longer abnormal, but is emerging as a new normal.

This change is not just seasonal, but complex processes going on at the global level—such as climate change, rising ocean temperatures, and international wars—are playing a key role.

According to Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data, there has been a clear increase in the maximum temperature of the month of April in the last decade – this figure of maximum temperature (°C) relative to the year was 2015-40.7, 2016-43.1, 2017-41.8, 2018-40.7, 2019-44.6, 2020-38.8, Above 2021-41.9, 2022~43.0, 2023-39.0, 2024-41.0, 2025-42.0, and 2026-43.0 (as of April 27).

[Chitra-Gragh] These data make it clear that the decline in temperatures has only been temporary (e.g. in 2020), while the long-term trend has been a steady increase. [Chitra-Gragh] Pandemic and temperature: A temporary respite The temperature had dropped to 38.8°C during the COVID-19 lockdown in 2020.

The main reasons for this were reduction in vehicular movement, stagnation of industrial activities and decline in air pollution. However, this decline was not permanent. As soon as activities resumed, temperatures began rising rapidly again. The relationship between war and climate change Currently, a dangerous relationship has emerged between climate change and war, the main effects of which are: huge fuel consumption in military equipment, carbon emissions from bombings and fires, and destruction of energy infrastructure.

Temperatures reaching around 43°C during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 and Middle East conflicts in 2026 strengthen this connection. Wars seriously affect not only human life but also the environmental balance of the earth. Changing nature of ‘Western Waves’ Western disturbances coming to India are now becoming irregular and more intense.

The major changes experienced were sudden rainfall and hailstorms, immediately followed by severe heatwaves and rapid fluctuations in temperature (from 25°C to 43°C). Due to this, not only was there a crisis on Rabi crops (especially wheat) but it also affected the income of farmers and there was an unexpected increase in various health related problems.

Urban India and the ‘Heat Island’ Effect The “Urban Heat Island” effect is increasing rapidly due to concrete structures and lack of greenery in cities like Lucknow, Delhi and Patiala. As a result, cities are hotter than rural areas, even night temperatures remain above 30°C due to which the body is not able to get rest and the general public is in distress.

Future Crisis (2026–2030) If the current trend continues, India may face serious challenges in the coming years due to heatwaves lasting more than 15 days, water scarcity in all cities/villages and declining groundwater levels. Along with this, energy demand is also increasing rapidly. Due to the above reasons, a possible reduction in GDP by 4–6% cannot be ruled out.

It can also be predicted that the situation may worsen after 2030, when temperatures are likely to reach 48–50°C. Solution: What can be done? Multi-pronged efforts are necessary to tackle this crisis:

1. Environmental measures – Now we have to work shoulder to shoulder with the government in the form of a campaign in tree plantation and forest conservation and effective work is needed to conserve biodiversity.

2. Energy transformation – Although the present government in India is rapidly promoting solar and wind energy from the general public to the business institutions, but it will have to be self-reliant for energy along with self-reliant India by the year 2047. Along with this, dependence on fossil fuels will have to be reduced.

3. Water Management – Till now, despite the efforts of the government in India, there is negligible information among the general public about rain water harvesting and the use of water conservation techniques is not being used, it is limited only to paper work. There is a need to create awareness and do effective work by running a campaign in this area.

4. Urban Planning- The Government of India has launched the schemes of Smart City and Green City Model, no effective impact of this is visible yet and neither less concrete and more greenery is leaving enough impact in any city or town. There is a need to work more effectively on this.

5. Social participation – It is clear from the above that in those schemes which are not being implemented effectively, it is very important to run public awareness campaigns and run public movements for environmental protection.