Athens. The 'hard-state' policy of Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir may increase dissatisfaction in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. An international report has warned that the strategy of controlling protests and resistance through the use of excessive military force could be counterproductive. In this province with a population of more than four crores, already active armed rebellion, strong political organization and sensitive border with Afghanistan remain a big challenge in terms of security.
According to the report, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa may prove to be the biggest test of this policy. Along with the security crisis, the dispute over political rights and control over natural resources also seems to be deepening.
Fear of increasing federal control over mineral wealth
The report said that the possibilities of exploiting important mineral resources in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have not yet been fully developed. Mineral reserves have not been comprehensively assessed, processing capacity is limited and mining activities may be difficult to pursue due to the deteriorating security situation.
It is feared that the military establishment may demand more budget from the central government for security operations. Along with this, there may also be an effort to strengthen control over the mineral resources of the province and make them available to buyers from western countries.
Political dispute increased due to emergency arrangement
According to the report, the constitutional arrangement implemented in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on October 11, 2026 has weakened the existing obstacles in the way of federal control over the mineral resources of the province. It mentions emergency powers and imposition of Governor's rule under Articles 232 and 234 of the Constitution.
The report claimed that in the event of a conflict between federal and provincial laws, federal law would prevail. Along with this, it has also been said that Chief Minister Sohail Afridi will be taken into preventive custody.
Mineral resources have been considered a provincial subject under the 18th Constitutional Amendment of Pakistan. In such a situation, the absence of an elected assembly and the fear of increasing federal control has created doubts among Pashtun political groups.
Increase in violence and deaths of policemen
According to the data given in the report, the number of deaths of policemen in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa increased to 122 in the first half of the year 2026, while the figure was 63 in the same period last year.
At the same time, between July and September 2026, the number of deaths related to violence was 556, which was 475 in the previous quarter. The Government of Pakistan has cited the deteriorating security situation as the basis for imposing emergency.
Warning of situation like Balochistan
The report assesses that removing the elected provincial government, detaining the Chief Minister and increasing federal control over natural resources cannot be a permanent solution to the problem. This may give extremist organizations a new issue to garner support in their favor.
The analysis warns that protests and violence could increase if local populations and political groups become increasingly aware that external control is being imposed on their rights and resources. In such a situation, there is a danger of administrative and security related complications arising in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa like Balochistan.