A big change is being seen in the politics of Tamil Nadu these days. There are reports of talks between State Chief Minister C. Joseph Vijay's party Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) and Dr. Anbumani Ramadoss-led Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK). This new development is raising many new questions about the state's politics, especially the future of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and AIADMK-led NDA alliance.
In the recent assembly elections held in Tamil Nadu, TVK won 108 out of 234 seats. However, the magic figure of majority to form the government is 118. Vijay was short of majority by 10 seats, which he accomplished with the help of smaller parties and formed the government. Now by-elections are going to be held on Madurantakam and Dharapuram seats in the state. Just before these by-elections, PMK took a big strategic decision. PMK has announced not to support any party or alliance in Madurantakam by-election. Because of this, there is more discussion about whether PMK is separating from BJP and if yes, what will change in the state. Let us understand-
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Madurantakam has a sizeable population of Vanniyar community. Usually, PMK's support benefits the AIADMK-BJP alliance, but this time, Vijay's party TVK seems to be directly benefiting from PMK's neutrality. According to media reports and political analysts, discussions are going on between Anbumani Ramadoss and John Arokiasamy, who is also Vijay's political advisor. The matter is not limited to just electoral support but has reached to the inclusion of PMK in the cabinet of the future TVK government.
Why is PMK so important for TVK?
For TVK, associating PMK with itself is not just a small electoral pact but a way to provide stability to its government. PMK's largest base is the Vanniyar community spread in northern Tamil Nadu. The Vanniyar community has a strong cadre and influence in many areas of the state. At present PMK has 4 MLAs in the assembly. If PMK MLAs come together with TVK then Vijay's government will be in a strong position without any problem.
What will be the impact on BJP's equations?
PMK has been an ally of NDA for a long time. PMK had also fought the 1998, 2014, 2019, 2021 and recent 2026 elections with the AIADMK-BJP alliance. If PMK joins TVK then NDA's vote bank in North Tamil Nadu will be greatly weakened. Also BJP is trying to emerge as a strong alternative in Tamil Nadu. PMK leaving NDA and joining Vijay's party will break the unity of the opposition. Due to this, BJP will have to make its strategy afresh on Vanniyar dominated seats. BJP's Tamil Nadu strategy has included expanding the reach of the NDA by keeping smaller and influential regional parties on board. With PMK's exit, BJP will lose one major regional partner in the state.
The road is not easy for TVK
Although the entry of PMK will strengthen Vijay, it may cause tension with his existing allies. VCK's main base is the Dalit community, while PMK's main base is the Vanniyar community. There have been many social and caste disputes between these two communities in Tamil Nadu. VCK is already a part of the Vijay government and also holds a cabinet post. It will be a challenge for Vijay to maintain coordination between the two. CPI and CPI-M have already indicated that they are distancing themselves from the TVK alliance and fighting the by-elections independently. This distance may increase further after PMK's entry.
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History of reservation in Tamil Nadu
The influence of communities in politics in Tamil Nadu has been very deep. 69% reservation model is implemented in the state. It was inaugurated in 1993 by the then Chief Minister J. Jayalalitha had got protection from the legal limit of 50% by including it in the 9th Schedule of the Constitution. The Vanniyar community falls in the 20% MBC (Most Backward Class) quota. Just before the elections in 2021, the AIADMK government had given internal reservation of 10.5% out of 20% MBC to Vanniyars. However, in March 2022, the Supreme Court canceled it due to insufficient data. PMK is still demanding to restore this 10.5% internal reservation by conducting caste census.
The politics of Tamil Nadu is at a new turning point. If PMK formally joins hands with TVK, it will not only make Vijay's government completely safe both legally and numerically, but BJP will have to rewrite its political equations in North Tamil Nadu. Now all eyes are on the results of Madurantakam and Dharapuram by-elections which will decide the final direction of this new political alliance.