Laying of the electoral chessboard has started in Uttar Pradesh. As the 2027 assembly elections are approaching, political temperature is starting to rise in the entire state including Thakurdwara assembly seat of Moradabad district. Meanwhile, a big news coming from the camp of Owaisi’s party has intensified the stir in the political circles. In fact, according to information received from highly placed sources of AIMIM (All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen), the party has every intention of contesting elections on all the assembly seats of Moradabad district this time. It is being said that the party leadership has started preparing for this internally, provided they do not have any electoral alliance with the Samajwadi Party.
After this big claim of AIMIM sources, now only one question is floating from the teahouses of Thakurdwara to the political headquarters of Lucknow that if Owaisi’s party makes a solo entry on the Moradabad seats, then who will win and whose game will be spoiled? The strategists of Samajwadi Party, BJP and BSP have already started calculating how the presence of Asaduddin Owaisi’s candidates will affect the electoral equations.
In fact, AIMIM has already tried its strength on Thakurdwara Assembly seat and the results obtained then, no political party can make the mistake of taking lightly. This is the reason why potential contenders who are preparing to enter the electoral battle are already setting their stakes keeping the Owaisi factor in mind. There is a strong discussion that if there is no alliance with SP, then Owaisi’s party will attack the entire district with more aggression this time.
What does the history of Thakurdwara and the election mathematics of 2017 say?
The matter is of the 2017 assembly elections, when AIMIM had fielded Ejaz Ahmed as its candidate from Thakurdwara assembly seat. Even though Owaisi’s party was away from the race for victory in that election, it surprised everyone by securing 9,444 votes (about 3.70 percent votes). In that election, Samajwadi Party’s Nawab Jaan had won by getting 1,07,865 votes, while BJP’s Rajpal Singh Chauhan stood second with 94,456 votes. BSP’s Vijay Yadav then got 39,821 votes. According to the local people, even though around nine and a half thousand votes may seem small, this number is very important to bridge the big difference between victory and defeat or spoil the game.
So will Owaisi directly break into SP’s vote bank?
Political analysts believe that there is a significant number of Muslim voters in Thakurdwara assembly seat, which has been a strong fort of the Samajwadi Party for a long time. This social equation has been the biggest basis behind SP’s consecutive victories in the 2014 by-elections, 2017 and then 2022 elections. It is now believed that if the alliance does not materialize and AIMIM contests alone on all the seats in 2027, then its most direct and sharp impact will be on the vote bank of the Samajwadi Party. In fact, whatever votes Owaisi’s party will attract are traditionally considered to be in SP’s favor. This is the reason why most uneasiness is being seen internally regarding this matter within the SP camp.
Will BJP’s path become easier with AIMIM’s entry?
There is a simple rule of electoral mathematics—when the opposition’s votes are dispersed, the ruling party’s path becomes easier. Similar apprehensions are being expressed in the entire Moradabad district including Thakurdwara. Experts say that if the contest on these seats is mainly between BJP and SP and due to the arrival of Owaisi, Muslim votes get divided, then Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can get direct and indirect benefit from it. However, it will depend on how much AIMIM is able to make inroads among the public and to what extent it polarises the electoral environment.
The ground situation has changed after 2022
It is being said that in the last few years, a lot of water has flowed in the grassroots politics of Thakurdwara. After the year 2022, the equations have changed rapidly. Mujahid Ali, who was a prominent face of BSP, has now changed sides and joined Samajwadi Party. At present, SP has a long army of faces like Nawab Jaan, Mujahid Ali and Engineer Iqbal, while from BJP, leaders like Amit Chauhan and Ajay Pratap Singh are sweating on the ground. On the other hand, Congress and BSP are not seen to be in the same aggressive position as they used to be earlier. Amidst these changing circumstances, if AIMIM decides to go alone on all the seats, then the contest will become triangular or quadrangular and will reach a very interesting turn.
If we look at it, the election picture of 2027 is still blurry, but the market of discussions is hot in Thakurdwara regarding the Owaisi factor and the terms of alliance with SP. Ultimately only the public will decide on which side the camel will sit, but at present the eyes of political pundits are fixed on whether AIMIM will script a new upset on this seat or not.
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