The latest projections from the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) weather forecasting model have indicated a further delay in the southwest monsoon gathering strength than previously expected.
According to the latest model runs, the strong upper-level winds that typically support a vigorous monsoon onset are unlikely to become fully established over southern India until after June 5 or 6.
Gradual onset Likely
This indicates that the monsoon’s arrival over Kerala could be relatively mild rather than marked by a strong surge of rainfall and winds. Instead of a dramatic onset, the seasonal weather system is expected to strengthen gradually over the following days, reported India Today.
Also Read: Kerala likely to get Southwest monsoon within three days: IMD
The southwest monsoon is one of the most important weather phenomena for India. Between June and September, moisture-laden winds from the Indian Ocean bring the majority of the country’s annual rainfall. These rains are vital for agriculture, help replenish reservoirs and groundwater resources, and provide much-needed relief from intense summer heat.
Reason behind the delay
The IMD’s forecasting model, which processes extensive atmospheric data to predict weather patterns several days in advance, indicates that a Western Disturbance currently affecting the region must first move away.
Also Read: IMD downgrades monsoon forecast to 90 pc as heatwave fears rise
This weather system, which originates from the west and carries moisture, is preventing the crucial upper-level easterly winds from strengthening over southern India. Until that happens, monsoon flow into Kerala is expected to remain somewhat weak.
The report further stated that the monsoon’s progress this year has been difficult to predict. The IMD had initially expected the monsoon to reach Kerala around May 26, but that forecast has been revised multiple times. Current estimates place the official onset between June 2 and June 4.
Conditions yet to align
While pre-monsoon showers have already brought rainfall to parts of Kerala, all the conditions required for an official declaration have not yet been met.
Also Read: India braces for hotter days, erratic monsoon as ‘super El Nino’ develops
The IMD requires three criteria to be satisfied simultaneously: sustained rainfall across at least 60 per cent of Kerala’s designated weather stations, sufficiently strong westerly winds over the Arabian Sea, and adequate cloud cover.
Currently, although rainfall and cloud cover meet the required standards, the westerly winds remain weaker than necessary. Experts attribute this weakness to earlier cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal, which disrupted the monsoon circulation. Meteorologists expect these winds to strengthen from June 1.
Seasonal concerns persist
Although the monsoon appears imminent, concerns remain about the overall season. The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall for India, lowering its estimate from 92 per cent to 90 per cent of the long-period average due to emerging El Nino conditions.
Meanwhile, severe heatwaves continue across northern and central India, making timely rainfall increasingly important for farmers preparing their fields for sowing.
Comments are closed.