India is staring at a harsher summer and a weaker monsoon than previously anticipated.
In a sharp revision to its earlier projections, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Friday (May 29) that the upcoming southwest monsoon is now expected to hit a dismal 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), down from the 92 per cent forecast in April.
The downgraded forecast, which carries a model error margin of firmly places this year’s rainfall in the “below-normal” category.
The shift is primarily driven by the rapid development of El Niño conditionswhich are expected to manifest in June and strengthen during the second half of the four-month monsoon season.
“During June 2026, above normal heat wave days are expected over parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, isolated regions of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu,” the IMD said.
What the IMD forecast says
The El Niño Factor: Weak El Niño conditions are projected to establish themselves by June, threatening to suppress crucial late-season rainfall as they intensify. Secondly, while Northeast India is slated to receive normal rainfall, the vital agricultural belts of Northwest, Central, and South Peninsular India are projected to experience below-normal precipitation.
Thirdly, June 2026 is set to bring an above-normal number of heatwave days across a massive swath of the country, including Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh.
Economic and agricultural Implications
The revised numbers signal immediate trouble for India’s rain-fed agricultural sector and the broader rural economy. The LPA—calculated at 87 cm based on data from 1971–2020—serves as the benchmark for a healthy crop cycle.
While April’s initial forecast of 92 per cent had already raised alarms, the drop to 90 per cent intensifies fears of lower crop yields, potential drinking water shortages, and spiked inflation.
The only silver lining in the IMD’s spatial distribution map lies in isolated pockets of the northeast, northwest, and extreme South Peninsular India, which may buck the trend and see normal to above-normal showers.
However, for the vast majority of the Indian mainland, the immediate future holds a dual crisis of scorching heat and parched fields.
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