The political chessboard has already started being laid for the 2027 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh. All the political parties are busy sharpening their respective strategies. Meanwhile, Thakurdwara assembly seat of Moradabad district has suddenly become the center of discussion in political circles. In fact, since 2012, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is waiting for a win on this seat. Be it the 2014 by-elections, or the main elections of 2017 and 2022, the party had to taste defeat every time. But what is seen in politics is not always what happens. Behind these consecutive defeats lies an interesting figure, which has filled a new enthusiasm among the BJP high command and the grassroots workers. This is why political pundits are asking – Is UP Election 2027 going to prove to be the biggest opportunity for BJP in Thakurdwara in the last 13 years?
In fact, the reason for BJP’s morale being high despite the defeat is the continuously increasing vote bank of the party. The figures bear witness to the fact that even though the seat has gone to SP, BJP’s vote percentage has not declined with every election, but has become stronger. Experts believe that when the party’s graph goes upwards even after continuous defeat on a seat, it simply means that the party’s support base is not shrinking, but is expanding into new areas and new sections.
What do the political figures of Thakurdwara say?
If we look at the last assembly elections i.e. 2022, here Samajwadi Party’s Nawab Jaan had defeated BJP’s Ajay Pratap Singh by a margin of 19,684 votes. Even though BJP stood second, the surprising thing was that the party had secured a much better vote percentage than in 2017. According to local people, Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) are now almost marginalized on the seat. BSP, which was once very strong here during 2007, no longer appears to be in that position. Its direct effect is that the old fragmentation of opposition votes has now completely ended and the contest has directly transformed into ‘SP vs BJP’. BJP strategists believe that in this direct fight, the party has more chances than ever to turn the tables.
Juggling between strong contenders and organizations
It is being told that this time there is a lot of stir within the BJP regarding the ticket contenders. The party has active and strong faces like Ajay Pratap Singh and Amit Chauhan. On one hand, Ajay Pratap Singh has long electoral experience, while on the other hand, Amit Chauhan is strengthening his ground by continuously staying among the public. This means that BJP has no dearth of options on the leadership front. Along with this, in the last five years the party has very aggressively strengthened its organization at the booth level. Especially in rural areas, BJP’s activism has increased much more than before.
Muslim polarization and impenetrable fort of SP
However, BJP’s path is not as easy as it seems. The biggest challenge before the party is the traditional voting pattern of Thakurdwara. Muslim voters have always been in the role of kingmakers in this region. From the by-elections of 2014 till 2022, Samajwadi Party has been getting the direct benefit of this polarization. Current SP MLA Nawab Jaan has won elections from here three times in a row, due to which his personal support base and hold on the organization in the area is considered very strong. Apart from this, the activism of leaders like Mujahid Ali and Engineer Iqbal in the SP camp has given more edge to the party’s network. If Muslim voters remain completely behind SP even in 2027, then it will be very difficult for BJP to demolish this fort.
If political observers are to be believed, which side the camel of Thakurdwara will sit on in the UP Election 2027 will not be decided only on the name of the party. The real decision will be based on which candidate contests, how much is lost in Muslim votes, and which side the young voters turn to. Also, whichever side gets the remaining traditional votes of Congress and BSP, the victory will be tied to that side. Overall, this is definitely the golden opportunity for BJP to win this seat, but it will be very interesting to see whether it is able to convert this opportunity into victory or not.
Comments are closed.