In the geopolitics of South Asia, water has now become not only the basis of life but also the biggest weapon for diplomacy and strategic advantage. The strict steps being taken by India for better utilization of water resources of Himachal Pradesh and North India have given sleepless nights to the rulers of Pakistan. In particular, ever since India has expedited work on a revolutionary 'Chenab-Beas Link Tunnel' project to divert the waters of the Chenab River to the Beas Basin, there has been an uproar from Islamabad to Lahore. A new and bigger crisis appears to be facing Pakistan's weakening economy and agricultural sector. Indus Waters Treaty and complete mathematics of Chenab-Beas Link Tunnel In the year 1960, 'Indus Waters Treaty' (IWT) was signed between India and Pakistan with the mediation of the World Bank. Under this agreement, control of the Sutlej, Beas and Ravi (eastern rivers) went to India, while most of the waters of the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab (western rivers) were earmarked for Pakistan's use. However, under the provisions of the treaty, India also has rights for limited agricultural, domestic use and development of hydroelectric projects on the western rivers. India is now going ahead with this ambitious tunnel project in Himachal Pradesh costing over Rs 2,500 crore to strengthen its water security and take full advantage of the geographical location. The main objective of this 8.7 km long tunnel is to divert excess water from the Chenab basin (Chandra river area) to the Beas river system. As soon as the news of the tender and blueprint of this project became public, Pakistani rulers and agricultural experts started calling it a flagrant violation of international water laws. Why is Pakistan considering this as a big threat to its economy? A large part of Pakistan's agriculture and food security depends on the waters of the Indus River system, especially the Chenab River. Pakistani media and government circles claim that if India succeeds in diverting the water of western rivers towards its eastern rivers, then large parts of Pakistan's Punjab and Sindh provinces may reach the verge of becoming barren. Islamabad alleges that such an inter-basin water transfer project will drastically reduce the amount of water coming to Pakistan. Furthermore, Pakistan is also well aware that India has kept the Indus Water Treaty in a practical 'abeyance' or tight control for some time now, which has weakened Pakistan's traditional ability to lodge diplomatic objections and create hurdles in international fora. Due to this tough stance of India, Pakistan is now clearly afraid of its future water crisis and economic crisis. India's aggressive water diplomacy and Pakistan's internal failures Diplomatic experts believe that Pakistan's panic is not limited to just one tunnel, but it is the result of India's changing strategic thinking where national security is paramount. India has made it clear that terrorism and diplomacy cannot go together, and under this policy, the provisions of the Indus Water Agreement are being reviewed and strict compliance is being ensured. In the Chenab valley, work is progressing rapidly not only on the link tunnel but also on several important hydropower projects like Pakal Dul (1,000 MW), Kiru (624 MW) and Ratle. On the other hand, global water analysts also believe that blaming India entirely for Pakistan's water problems is like hiding its own administrative failures. Even after decades, Pakistan has not developed modern infrastructure for water storage. Pakistan is already facing water crisis internally due to poor canal management, seepage and huge amount of water wastage. In such a situation, even the smallest geographical and infrastructural development of India shakes the entire Pakistani system. Regional Geopolitics and Future Direction The Chenab-Beas Link Project and India's increasing control over the western rivers have proved that India is no longer willing to be bound by any external pressure or old formalities in the exploitation of its water wealth. Pakistan is trying to put pressure on India by taking this matter to international forums and China's side, but New Delhi's clear and unwavering diplomacy has made it clear that India will take every necessary step within the ambit of its territory and national interests. In the coming days, this water diplomacy will remain the biggest focus point of South Asian politics.
