News of relief amid the scorching heat: This time monsoon may arrive before time, chances of rain till the end of May

The latest prediction of weather forecasters has given good news. The south-west monsoon may arrive early, which can bring relief from the scorching heat and bring a smile on the faces of people.

However, there is news of relief for the people suffering from the heat. The latest weather forecast has indicated that the south-west monsoon may arrive early this time. Monsoon rains may start in South India by the end of May. In 2025 too, the monsoon was expected to reach Kerala between 27th and 29th May, but it arrived before the scheduled time. Monsoon also reached Andaman and Nicobar Islands before time. Many factors influence the progress of the monsoon, but current indications are again showing a strong possibility of an early arrival.

Where will monsoon reach first?

According to the sub-seasonal chart released this week, monsoon may reach Andaman and Nicobar Islands between May 18 and 25. Every year, moist winds from the Indian Ocean bring rain to India. At present, models are indicating strong winds from the south-west over the southern Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea. These winds are expected to bring 30 to 60 mm more rain than normal in the islands that week.

There is also a 20-40% chance of a tropical system forming north of Andaman. Such systems often act as boosters that draw in more moisture and help usher in the monsoon season. Next week, between May 25 and June 1, the monsoon activity is expected to move west and north. Strong westerly winds are expected to form over the south-east Arabian Sea, which will carry moisture directly towards the south-west coast of India.

Due to this, there may be more rain than normal in the southern districts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. For millions of people in these rain-dependent areas, early rains will mean relief from the rising heat and timely start of agricultural activities. Models are showing a clear increase in rain clouds over the Kerala coast during this period.

What will decide the timing of arrival of monsoon?

Several factors will determine when the rains will arrive, driven by the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean. When the western Indian Ocean is warmer than the eastern part, a positive IOD brings more moisture towards the Indian subcontinent, usually leading to a stronger monsoon and higher than average rainfall, while a negative IOD weakens the monsoon. Also the heat will have to be considered. The scorching heat that India is facing at the beginning of this year will play a role in deciding the coming monsoon.

As summer heats up, monsoon winds from the Indian Ocean, which usually pass through the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, may arrive much earlier. So if there is no change in the atmosphere or ocean as predicted for the end of May, there is a good chance that the monsoon may arrive around May 25, Tripathi said. As of now, there is a possibility of monsoon arriving early this year too. While the heat continues to impact the everyday lives of millions of people in South India, if models prove correct, the much-awaited monsoon relief for South India could come earlier than usual.