Indian stock markets are likely to remain volatile this week as investors track September-quarter earnings, inflation data, crude oil prices and global developments, analysts said.
Results from major IT companies, including Wipro, HCL Technologies and Tech Mahindra, will be closely watched after better-than-expected earnings from Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) helped markets recover last week.
Inflation data to test market sentiment
September consumer price index (CPI) and wholesale price index (WPI) inflation data will be crucial in determining market direction.
Hariselvan Radhakrishnan, founder and CEO of HST Wealth, said higher-than-expected inflation could revive concerns over further Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rate hikes.
Banking, automobile and real estate stocks could face pressure if inflation remains elevated. However, softer inflation could provide temporary relief to the markets, particularly as Brent crude continues to trade above USD 100 per barrel.
IT earnings take centre stage
The September-quarter earnings season will gather momentum this week, with HCL Technologies, Wipro and Tech Mahindra among the major IT companies scheduled to announce their results.
Other companies set to report earnings include BHEL, Canara Bank, HDB Financial Services, HDFC Asset Management Company and Nestle India.
IT stocks witnessed strong buying on Friday after TCS shares rallied over 4% following better-than-expected quarterly results. Analysts believe earnings guidance and management commentary will determine whether the sector’s recovery can continue.
Crude oil prices and FII selling remain risks
Siddhartha Khemka, head of research, wealth management, at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, expects Indian equities to consolidate amid improving corporate earnings and persistent global uncertainties.
Brent crude prices above USD 100 per barrel and sustained foreign institutional investor (FII) selling remain key concerns for the markets.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said geopolitical tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz continue to threaten global energy supplies, adding to concerns over crude oil prices and inflation.
Global pressures weigh on market sentiment
The recent market downturn has been driven largely by geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, which pushed crude oil prices higher and heightened inflation concerns.
A weakening rupee, elevated US bond yields and persistent foreign portfolio investor (FPI) selling have further dampened investor confidence.
Data showed that 31 Nifty constituents delivered negative returns between the two Navratri periods, reflecting widespread selling pressure across sectors.
ITC, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Infosys, Jio Financial Services and Tata Consultancy Services were among the biggest losers, with each declining more than 30%.
HDFC Life Insurance, Maruti Suzuki, HDFC Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Max Healthcare and Mahindra & Mahindra fell between 22% and 29%. Overall, around 20 Nifty stocks declined by more than 12% during the period.
Shriram Finance defies market weakness
Despite the broader market correction, several heavyweight stocks delivered strong gains.
Shriram Finance emerged as the biggest winner, surging nearly 49% between Navratri 2025 and Navratri 2026. Titan Company, Adani Ports and Hindalco Industries gained between 21% and 27%.
Nestle India, State Bank of India and Axis Bank also outperformed the benchmark, advancing more than 10%.
What lies ahead for the stock market?
Analysts expect Indian stock markets to remain range-bound in the near term as investors monitor crude oil prices, global bond yields, geopolitical developments and corporate earnings.
While September-quarter earnings are expected to remain healthy, continued foreign investor selling and macroeconomic uncertainties could limit a sustained recovery.
Domestic institutional buying may provide some support to equities. However, global developments, particularly movements in crude oil prices and the direction of foreign fund flows, are likely to determine the market’s next major move.