RBI MPC general meeting from today! Central Bank will keep a close eye on rising inflation and pace of economic growth

Latest RBI Monetary Policy: The three-day important meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India has started from Wednesday. The country’s economy and inflation will be discussed in depth in this meeting. The ongoing tensions in West Asia and rising crude oil prices have made the economic situation quite complex. In such a situation, experts believe that the Central Bank will not make any major changes in interest rates this time.

According to economists, RBI may decide to keep interest rates stable, but its stance will be cautious. Due to global challenges, the central bank may maintain some strictness in its policies. According to HSBC Chief Economist Pranjul Bhandari, some strictness can be taken in future if needed. At present, the market is assuming that a cut in interest rates is expected from the fourth quarter of 2026.

Effect of crude oil prices and forecast of economic growth rate and inflation.

Pranjul Bhandari said that the market and investors will keep a special eye on the new economic estimates of RBI. It will be very important to see how the central bank assesses the shocks in the energy sector and crude oil prices. If oil prices rise to $85 per barrel, inflation estimates could rise from 4.6 percent to 5 percent.

CareAge Ratings report said that inflation has increased rapidly due to lack of monsoon and retail prices of fuel. The direct impact of this increase in wholesale inflation can be seen very rapidly on the retail inflation of the common man. At present, the main reason for increasing inflation is not the demand of customers but the continuous challenges on the supply side.

According to the report, the country’s estimated GDP growth rate in the financial year 2026-27 is expected to be at the level of 6.7 percent. For this, it is necessary that the average price of crude oil in the international market remains around $ 90 per barrel for a long time. However, if the conflict in West Asia drags on and oil reaches $110 per barrel, the growth rate could remain at 6 percent.

GDP growth target and opinion of financial experts amid global instability

SBI Research also strongly believes that due to the threat of inflation and global instability, RBI will not change the repo rate. According to the report, a strong GDP growth rate for the financial year 2026-27 is estimated at 6.6 percent. At the same time, this growth rate for the financial year 2025-26 has been estimated at around 7.5 percent, which is a positive sign.

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Due to fuel prices, CPI based inflation may remain above 5 percent for several quarters. MK Global Financial Services, in its recent report, has also made a strong prediction of completely maintaining the status quo in interest rates. This well-known brokerage firm says that the recent softening in the prices of Brent crude has brought relief to RBI to a great extent.

The improvement in the external economic situation has also created a positive environment for the Reserve Bank of India. According to the brokerage, if crude oil prices fall further and geopolitical tensions subside, the Indian rupee will strengthen. This favorable situation may also help the RBI a lot in keeping its key interest rates stable for a long time.