There’s a strange, almost cruel symmetry to the way this first-round series between the Rockets and the Lakers has taken shape.
Three weeks ago, the Lakers looked like one of the NBA’s best teams, on the precipice of making a deep playoff run. Meanwhile, the Rockets were stumbling through March grasping for something to hold onto.
Now the roles have reversed, violently.
The Lakers limp into the postseason missing their top two scorers in Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves — that’s nearly 60 points per game gone like smoke.
The Rockets enter the playoffs soaring, winners of nine of their last 10 games. They’ve rediscovered their identity, and it starts and ends on the defensive end.
The Lakers will try to hold onto the rope long enough for their two stars to try to come back later in the series. Until then, here are some of the matchups to look for:
LeBron vs the Machine
The Lakers’ only chance of getting past Houston without Doncic and Reaves hangs on the back of a 41-year-old LeBron James.
Houston won’t treat him like a king. The Rockets will treat him like the head of the snake. Stop him and let the role players try to beat you. Unfortunately for the Lakers, Houston has a lot of players on its roster who can do that.
Let’s start with Amen Thompson — long, relentless and unapologetically physical. He finished fifth for NBA Defensive Player of the Year voting last season, and we expect another top-five finish this year. Thompson will take on the assignment of guarding James straight up at times, stripping away the need for help defense thereby allowing the rest of the players to stay home on their assignments.
When Thompson’s not on LeBron, the Rockets can also throw 6-foot-11 forward Jabari Smith Jr. on him with his over 7-foot wingspan. If they want a different look, Houston coach Ime Udoka can also put 6-8 physical forward Tari Eason on him.
Alperen Sengun vs DeAndre Ayton: The Battle Beneath
In a series defined by perimeter defenders and NBA legends, the most important matchup in the series might happen in the paint.
Turkish big man Alperen Sengun is now a fulcrum. He’s a two-time All-Star and a problem in the paint who demands constant attention. The assignment of guarding him belongs to former No. 1 overall draft pick Deandre Ayton.
In his first season with the purple and gold, Ayton has been inconsistent, his focus and effort drifting at times — until recently. The last six weeks have offered a glimpse into what he can be when he’s engaged, physical, present and focused.
Ayton has the most difficult assignment of any Lakers player. Rebound everything. Keep the Rockets off the offensive glass. Contain Sengun as much as he can, be the rim defender when the Lakers switch to a zone defense and run the pick and roll with James and Luke Kennard in order to make a dent on offense as well.
Different Defensive Looks and Disruption
Not an individual matchup, but we expect the Lakers to give the Rockets different looks on defense throughout the series. The team frustrated its opponents throughout the season by switching to a zone defense during games. We expect some zone looks in this series as well.
Houston isn’t a strong 3-point shooting team outside of Reed Sheppard, which could allow the Lakers to play zone sometimes and dare the Rockets to beat them from distance. They also want to disrupt passing lanes, force turnovers and blitz Kevin Durant. Blitzing Durant when he had the ball worked in their last two matchups in Houston. In their first matchup March 16, they erased a six-point halftime deficit by blitzing Durant and holding him scoreless the entire second half until a last-second layup in garbage time.
The Rockets have one of the slowest paces of play and will want to slow down the game and grind it to a halt in the half court. The Lakers, meanwhile, need chaos and to get out in transition. Quick strikes before the Rockets’ defense can even set up.
Houston will need Sheppard’s 3-point shooting in this series, but when he’s on the floor, look for LeBron and the Lakers to hunt him on defense. Drag him into screens. Force switches. Attack.
LeBron James vs. Kevin Durant: The Last of the Mohicans
Durant is the quiet storm that hovers over this series. Houston’s elite perimeter defenders allow Durant to expend his energy on the offensive end of the floor, where he can take over entire games.
The Lakers will likely throw the smaller Marcus Smart and stronger Rui Hachimura at him, hoping the combination can disrupt his rhythm. LeBron will even guard him at times as well. Help will inevitably come. It has to. But every second defender you throw at Durant allows someone else to be wide open.
If Houston finds those players and they make those shots, the Lakers are in big trouble.
Expect James to have the ball in his hands most of the time on offense, hunting mismatches and forcing Houston to make tough decisions. On defense, LeBron will lurk, providing help on Durant.
This might be the final chapter between LeBron and Durant and who wins the individual battles could be the player who leads his team to victory in the series.
Game 1 on Saturday will go a long way to decide who will win the series. Both teams will try to set the tempo early and impose their will. Houston has the momentum, the depth and the defense that travels.
The Lakers have LeBron, shooting and the hope that if they hold onto the rope long enough, Doncic and Reaves can return to rescue them later in the series.
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