Vietnam’s performance has been encouraging, with international arrivals increasing by 13.8% year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2026 to 19.5 million.
“However, I believe reaching the target of 25 million visitors is becoming increasingly unlikely, although not entirely impossible,” Martin Koerner, commercial director of Anam Group, which manages two resorts in Mui Ne and Cam Ranh, told Read International.
To achieve this target, Vietnam needs 5.5 million arrivals in the last two months, an increase of 37.5% from the same period last year.
Achieving such growth would be difficult under current market conditions, Koerner said.
|
Foreign tourists on a street in Hanoi, October 2026. Photo by Read/Hoang Giang |
One of the main concerns is the sharp increase in global oil prices and the resulting effect on airfares, he added.
Airlines have hiked fuel surcharges on some international routes. Higher fares and inflation due to the soaring oil prices are dissuading many people from traveling.
South Korea, Vietnam’s second-largest inbound market, has sent 6.3% fewer visitors to Vietnam so far this year, while the number of tourists from China, its largest source, has only increased by 1.4%.
Southeast Asia continues to be one of the world’s most attractive tourism regions, but 2026 has demonstrated that international travel demand is becoming increasingly sensitive to economic and geopolitical developments.
Thailand, the second largest tourism destination in Southeast Asia, received 25.5 million foreign arrivals in the first 10 months of 2026, down 4.6% year-on-year.
The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce expects the full-year number to fall by 4.5% to 31.5 million, The Nation Thailand reported.
This is lower than the university’s previous estimate of 32-34 million, and it too blamed the decline on the conflict in the Middle East, volatile oil prices, and rising travel costs.
Malaysia, Southeast Asia’s most-visited country, targets 47 million tourists this year, up 11.4% from 2026, but had only received 32.2 million in the first nine months, up 2.4% from the same period last year.
The Malaysia Tourism Promotion Board is facing mounting challenges in meeting its year-end target as the Iran war disrupts travel and threatens to leave arrivals below projections, its director-general Mohd Amirul Rizal Abdul Rahim told The Sun Malaysia.
Foreign arrivals have slowed down since March, prompting the agency to step up marketing campaigns and seek new ways to attract visitors.
Rahim said: “Without the Iran war, I can say we can achieve the 47 million target. We are working harder to attract more visitors, especially during the winter holiday season.”
Cambodia received 2.46 million international visitors in the first nine months, down 43.7% from the same period last year, as it targets 5.6-5.8 million for the year.
Vietnam, China, and the U.S. are Cambodia’s main source markets, but arrivals from all three nations declined.
Cambodian Minister of Tourism Huot Hak attributed the drop to regional and global challenges, including negative information surrounding online scam networks, tensions along the Cambodia-Thailand border, and conflicts in the Middle East.
Year-end efforts
To boost tourist arrivals in the remaining months of the year, Malaysian government has allocated RM10 million (US$2.5 million) to attract more MICE events and major international sports tournaments.
Its tourism promotion board is partnering with 24 airlines, including 21 foreign ones, to support 46 international routes.
Rahim said the board is seeking to diversify its source markets and improve air connectivity during the year-end holiday season.
Thailand is also preparing a major tourism promotion program for the final months of 2026.
Singapore, whose foreign arrivals in the first 10 months went up 3% only thanks to major sports events drawing visitors in October, is seeking to boost year-end tourism by launching new routes and increasing flight frequencies to Asian tourism hubs and Europe. It targets 17-18 million tourists this year and received 14.3 million in January-October.
Vietnam has started offering visa-free entry for Chinese citizens traveling in groups of two or more to Khanh Hoa Province, home to beach hub Nha Trang. The visa-exemption policy took effect from Oct. 12 as part of the Vietnam-China Tourism Cooperation Year 2026–2027 and will remain in place until Dec. 31, 2027.
Dr. Daisy Kanagasapapathy, a lecturer in tourism and hospitality management at RMIT Vietnam, believes Vietnam’s 25-million target remains within reach.
“That calls for a strong finish, and the fourth quarter is the start of the October-March peak tourism season,” she told Read International.
She said Vietnam should focus on converting existing travel demand into actual arrivals by increasing peak-season flights from China, South Korea, India and Europe and easing the congestion at Tan Son Nhat and Noi Bai airports.
It should promote festivals, MICE events, and golf packages, and ensure efficient e-visa processing, she added.
Koerner said Vietnam should step up targeted marketing in established markets like China, South Korea, Europe, and Australia, and expand efforts to tap emerging markets such as India.
Even if the 25 million target is not reached, he said, this should not overshadow Vietnam’s “considerable progress.”
Tourism success should increasingly be measured not simply by how many visitors arrive, but by the economic value they generate, the quality of their experiences, and the long-term benefits they bring to a country, he added.