New Delhi. The Winter Session of Parliament is likely to begin in the first week of December. The government can present Delimitation Bill in this session. To pass this bill, a two-thirds majority is required. This bill could not be passed by the House in the month of April, after which it was recently claimed quoting sources that the government has collected the figure of two-thirds. For this reason it can now be presented in the House. The Delimitation Bill is attached to the Women's Reservation Amendment Bill and if passed, the total seats in the Lok Sabha could be 850, of which two-thirds would be reserved for women. All this is happening at a time when the political environment remains quite tense and confrontational regarding the 'Special Intensive Revision' (SIR) of the voter list.
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The government is keen to pass the Constitutional Amendment Bill and the related Women's Reservation Amendment Bill. The objective of these bills is to increase the existing 543 seats of the Lok Sabha to a maximum of 850 through delimitation. This will pave the way for implementing 33 percent reservation for women in Parliament and state assemblies before the 2029 general elections. Sources familiar with the discussions told PTI that the first week of December is emerging as a possible time for the session, and discussions have taken place at the top levels of the government on possible dates.
The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has 320 members and will need the support of opposition parties to cross the required mark. The political challenge is not limited to statistics alone. Opposition parties have intensified their campaign against SIR and are demanding the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar. It is expected that they will also protest in the Parliament, due to which there are chances of another stormy session.
An MP from the ruling coalition said that unless the House runs smoothly, discussion and voting on the Constitution Amendment Bill will not be possible. The government, however, seems confident of overcoming the numerical hurdle. A senior government official on Thursday expressed confidence that this bill will be passed by a margin of 15 to 18 votes. It is clear from this that the government has collected two-thirds of the data. Meanwhile, the government's decision to continue the monsoon session without formally adjourning it has further fueled speculation over the timing and conduct of the next meeting.
The Monsoon session was adjourned sine die on August 13 and has not been adjourned since then. This period has now reached 94 days, surpassing the previous record of 87 days set in 2008. Under this arrangement, the possibility of calling an extended or special meeting at short notice to consider a proposed constitutional amendment was kept open. To extend the meeting of the existing session, it is necessary to give a notice of at least two days, while to call a new session, it is necessary to give a notice of at least 14 days.
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Government is considering this formula
It is learned that the government is considering a formula under which the number of Lok Sabha seats in all the states can be increased by 50 percent. Its purpose is to address the concerns raised about the impact of delimitation, especially the concerns of the southern states. It is believed that the existing distribution of seats among the states based on the 1971 census will be maintained in the proposed structure, although no final decision has been taken yet. The legislation proposed during a special session of Parliament on April 17 failed to garner the required numbers, making its future in the winter session a key political and legislative test for the government. The Constitution does not prescribe any specific time limit for adjournment of a House after it has been adjourned sine die.
How can NDA achieve the two-thirds figure?
NDA currently has its strength of 293. Additionally, when the bill was introduced in April, it also had the support of five other MPs. The number of rebel TMC MPs is 20. It is believed that 22 DMK MPs can also support the government on this issue, because the government has assured to increase the seats in every state by 50 percent. At the same time, six Shiv Sena UBT MPs rebelled and joined Shinde's Shiv Sena. By adding this the total number of NDA reaches 346. The figure of two-thirds was 352 last time. There has been speculation about the merger of NCP for many days. According to sources, Sharad Pawar's NCP SP can be included in NDA. Although Supriya Sule has officially denied it, this speculation has increased in the last few days. If Sharad Pawar's party becomes a part of NDA, then the two-thirds figure on the Delimitation Bill will be achieved. NCP SP has eight MPs. In this way the figure will increase to 354. Apart from this, some MPs may also remain absent from the House.