Trump’s 60-Day Iran Deadline Passes Without Nuclear Agreement/ TezzBuzz/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ The 60-day deadline established by President Donald Trump’s June agreement to end the Iran war expired Monday without a permanent peace or nuclear accord. Negotiations remain stalled over the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. blockade and Iran’s demands for an American withdrawal and war reparations. Both sides appear unwilling to compromise as the conflict strains Iran’s economy, global energy supplies and U.S. military resources.
Quick Look
- Trump signed the interim agreement at Versailles in June.
- It established a 60-day deadline for a permanent peace and nuclear deal.
- The deadline expired Monday without an agreement.
- Detailed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program apparently have not begun.
- The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.
- The waterway previously carried one-fifth of globally traded oil and gas.
- Iran claims the June agreement gave it a role in controlling traffic.
- Tehran wants the U.S. blockade lifted.
- Iran also demands a U.S. military withdrawal and war reparations.
- Trump says Iran should pay reparations instead.
- The United States has restored its blockade of Iranian ports.
- Iran’s economy has been battered, and inflation has surged.
- Houthi rebels have begun attacking Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea.
- Pakistan is seeking an extension and renewed negotiations.
- Neither Washington nor Tehran has shown signs of backing down.
Deep Look
Iran peace deadline expires without an agreement
The deadline set by President Donald Trump’s June agreement for ending the war with Iran and resolving the dispute over Tehran’s nuclear program expired Monday.
Trump signed the deal at Versailles and gave the United States and Iran 60 days to reach a permanent agreement.
Instead, the two countries are now further apart than they were when the document was signed.
Talks have concentrated on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the American blockade of Iran. Both steps were expected under the interim agreement, but neither has occurred.
There is also no indication that detailed nuclear negotiations have begun.
US faces limited options
The United States has no easy path out of the war it launched alongside Israel.
Accepting Iran’s latest demands could effectively give Tehran control over a crucial international waterway and appear to acknowledge an American defeat.
Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz carried approximately one-fifth of the world’s traded oil and gas.
Escalating the conflict would carry its own significant costs.
A wider war could deplete American supplies of advanced missile interceptors, disrupt the global economy and raise gasoline prices before the U.S. congressional elections.
Washington and Tehran therefore appear to be waiting for the other side to make the first concession.
June agreement quickly collapses
The Versailles agreement, formally called the Memorandum of Understanding, called for an end to all military operations.
It also created the 60-day deadline for a permanent peace agreement and a resolution of the longstanding dispute over Iran’s nuclear activities.
The memorandum called for reopening the Strait of Hormuz but assigned Iran a vaguely defined role in facilitating maritime traffic.
That language left open the possibility that Tehran could begin charging vessels after the deadline.
Iran has used the provision to support its claim that it has authority over the waterway.
Attacks resume after agreement
One week after the deal was signed, Iran began firing on vessels traveling along the Omani coast.
That route, located on the opposite side of the strait, is supervised by the U.S. military and was intended to allow shipping to bypass Iranian control.
The United States responded with strikes on Iran.
Tehran retaliated by attacking Arab countries hosting American forces, including Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain.
Washington then canceled waivers issued under the agreement that had allowed Iran to sell oil internationally.
Trump also restored the blockade of Iranian ports.
Both governments accused the other of violating the agreement, leaving almost none of its provisions intact.
Fighting decreases but disputes remain
Direct fighting eventually declined, but the underlying disagreements were not resolved.
A related truce in Lebanon between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah has largely held.
Israeli forces, however, continue to occupy large areas of southern Lebanon despite the June agreement’s pledge to ensure Lebanon’s “territorial integrity and sovereignty.”
Iranian officials say direct negotiations with Washington stopped in June, although they acknowledge that intermediaries continue to relay messages.
Trump maintains that talks have continued and has occasionally claimed progress after withdrawing threats of major new strikes.
Pakistan seeks extension of negotiations
Pakistan played an important role in brokering the June agreement.
Its government noted last week that the 60-day deadline would expire Monday and expressed hope that it could be extended.
“We are not closing the chapter,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Tahir Andrabi said. “Pakistan is making all-out efforts to bring the two parties to the negotiating table.”
It remains unclear whether Washington and Tehran would accept a formal extension or return to direct talks.
Iran issues demands for reopening strait
Earlier in August, Iran presented a list of conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Tehran demanded that the United States lift its blockadewithdraw forces from areas surrounding Iran and pay reparations for damage caused during the war.
The United States and Israel began the conflict on Feb. 28.
Iran says that even if its conditions are accepted, it would continue exercising control over the strait through an agreement being negotiated with Oman.
Tehran has also indicated that it could charge vessels for passage.
That means the strait would not return to the open, toll-free waterway that existed before the war.
Houthi attacks threaten second trade route
Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have begun attacking Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea.
The attacks threaten another essential shipping corridor.
The Red Sea route had helped ease some of the pressure created by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Disruption to both waterways could further limit energy shipments and intensify pressure on global fuel prices.
Trump rejects Iran’s conditions
Trump has rejected Tehran’s demands and argues that Iran, rather than the United States, should pay war reparations.
He also claims that the United States controls the Strait of Hormuz.
The administration appears to be relying on economic pressure to force Iran’s leaders to compromise.
That pressure includes the blockade of Iranian ports and longstanding international sanctions.
Trump is betting that continued isolation and economic hardship will eventually make Tehran accept American terms.
Iran faces mounting economic pressure
Iran’s economy has suffered extensive damage from the war and its international isolation.
Inflation has climbed sharply, adding to the financial burden on Iranian households.
The economic crisis could revive anti-government demonstrations similar to those authorities violently suppressed in January.
However, Iran’s leaders appear to believe they can endure the pressure long enough to force Trump to abandon his position on the strait.
Hormuz traffic remains severely restricted
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz increased immediately after the June interim agreement.
Traffic has since fallen again to only a small fraction of prewar levels.
The prolonged disruption is pushing up the cost of fuel and other goods.
Those increases are expected to continue the longer the confrontation remains unresolved, producing economic consequences extending far beyond the Middle East.
The formal 60-day deadline has expired, but political, military and economic pressure continues to build on both countries.
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