New Delhi: A major change is being seen in the geopolitics of the Gulf region. After being a member for almost 59 years, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has decided to withdraw from the global oil organization OPEC. This move is being seen not just as a change in energy policy, but as a sign of growing tension and changing alliances among regional powers.
Experts believe that this decision has been taken in the background of worsening equations with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Especially the recent developments related to Iran and Pakistan’s stance put UAE in a diplomatically uncomfortable situation, after which it took this big strategic step.
Attacks on UAE and growing security concerns
It is being told that the roots of this entire dispute are related to the ongoing tension between America and Iran. When Iran launched missile and drone attacks on the UAE during the conflict between the US and Israel, Abu Dhabi expected strong support from its regional allies.
According to Abu Dhabi’s Defense Ministry, UAE air defense systems destroyed 537 Iranian ballistic missiles, 26 cruise missiles and 2,256 drones as of April 8. Despite this, concerns remained regarding security.
Dissatisfaction with Pakistan’s ‘neutrality’
According to the report of London-based ‘Financial Times’, UAE wanted Pakistan to take a tough stance against Iran. But Pakistan instead chose to play the role of mediator between the US and Iran, leading to a unilateral ceasefire.
Due to this stance of Pakistan, UAE felt itself diplomatically isolated and militarily weak. According to experts, this ‘neutrality’ was not acceptable to UAE at all.
Economic response and Saudi Arabia’s role
Angered by Pakistan’s attitude, UAE created economic pressure and demanded immediate return of the loan of $3.5 billion. Whereas this amount was to be sought by the end of 2027. This amount is believed to be about one-fifth of the reserves of the Central Bank of Pakistan.
During this crisis, Saudi Arabia intervened and gave a loan of $3 billion to Pakistan and also promised an additional credit line of $5 billion.
A NATO-like defense agreement was also signed between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in September 2025, under which Pakistan can provide its nuclear weapons and missile support for the security of Saudi Arabia.
Growing distance between Saudi Arabia and UAE
Differences on many issues are now coming to the fore in the relations between Saudi Arabia and UAE, which were once strong allies.
Yemen conflict: In 2015, the two countries jointly launched a campaign against the Houthi rebels, but now Saudi Arabia is leaning towards a political solution, while the UAE is supporting the southern separatists.
Sudan civil war (2023): The UAE is accused of supporting the ‘Rapid Support Forces’ (RSF), while Saudi Arabia, along with Egypt, is supporting the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).
Oil Production Quota: There has been a long-standing disagreement between the two countries regarding production quota and prices in OPEC, where Saudi Arabia has been dominant.
Meaning of leaving OPEC
UAE’s exit from OPEC after being a part of it for nearly six decades can impact the global energy market and geopolitics.
Complete freedom of production: Now UAE will be able to produce oil at its full capacity without any quota restriction. Its share in OPEC’s total production was about 9% and it has been producing about 3 million barrels of oil per day.
Distance from Saudi influence: This step indicates that the UAE now wants to move away from Saudi Arabia’s influence in regional strategy and take independent decisions.
statements of ministers
UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohammed Al Mazroui called it a long-term market-friendly policy. Meanwhile, Industry Minister Sultan Al Jaber called it a sovereign decision taken in the national interest and energy stability.
However, separation from OPEC does not mean ending relations with Saudi Arabia. Both countries are still trading partners and members of the GCC, but this step is being considered a big sign of UAE’s strategic independence.
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