UP Election 2027: Will the ticket be given or will it be canceled? Why did UP BJP’s silent survey increase the anxiety of MLAs?

There are still more than 14 months left for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, but BJP has already started examining the candidates. The party has launched a silent survey across the state, in which the popularity of the sitting MLAs, their acceptability among the public, anti-incumbency and chances of victory are being estimated. According to sources, special attention is being kept on MLAs who have won elections two or more times. After the defeat of many senior leaders in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the party is in no mood to take any risk in the assembly elections.

This is the reason why a new blueprint of the candidates for 2027 is being prepared on the basis of feedback from external agencies, organizations and RSS. The indications are clear – it will not be easy for MLAs whose reports are weak to save tickets.

1. Why did BJP start the survey campaign?

Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections There are still about 8 months left, but the Bharatiya Janata Party has already intensified the election preparations. The party leadership wants to identify any kind of anti-incumbency wave, local dissatisfaction or organizational weakness in advance. For this purpose, survey of assembly constituencies is being conducted on a large scale. This work has been going on for more than two months. So that every decision from candidate selection to election strategy can be taken on the basis of ground data.

2. Which agencies got the responsibility of the survey?

According to sources, the first phase of the survey has been handed over to the professional election management organization ‘Nation with Namo’. This organization has earlier worked under the name of ‘A Billion Minds (ABM)’ and has been associated with many election campaigns of BJP. This time the party is working on the strategy of getting reports prepared from two different agencies. So that by matching each other’s data, unbiased and genuine feedback can be obtained. Even before the 2022 elections, BJP had made changes in ticket distribution on a large scale based on the reports of agencies like Jarvis and ABM.

3. What is being tested about the MLAs?

The survey is not limited to measuring popularity only. The teams have been given the responsibility to find out how active the MLAs are in their area, how is their contact with the public, what is the opinion of the people regarding the development works and how much is the atmosphere of satisfaction or resentment towards them at the local level. Along with this, the acceptability of potential new faces, caste equations, their hold in the organization and their ability to win elections are also being evaluated.

4. How is the work of the survey teams going on?

Survey agents are contacting different social groups in villages, towns and cities. Opinions are being gathered through informal conversations with people in tea shops, markets, court complexes, educational institutions and residential areas. Apart from this, feedback is also being taken from booth level workers, district officials, teachers, doctors, traders, women’s organizations and youth groups. The purpose of the survey is not only to understand the public perception but also the internal environment of the party and local equations.

5. What is the role of RSS and local leaders in ticket distribution?

BJP organization is preparing a separate list of possible candidates at its level. It is being told that the opinion of MPs, district organization and officials associated with Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh will also be important in the final decision. The prospects of the candidates will be assessed by combining reports from external agencies, feedback from the organization and input from the association. The names which will get support at various levels, their claims will be considered the strongest.

6. Why is BJP keeping a special eye on Moradabad division?

In the statewide survey, Moradabad division holds special importance for BJP. The party had performed brilliantly here in 2017, but the number of seats decreased in 2022. For this reason, the party is deeply studying the social equations, local issues and possible candidates of this area. The leadership wants to know what was the reason for the decline in performance last time and how it can be improved by the next elections.

7. Crisis on tickets of these MLAs increases

According to UP BJP sources, the work of MLAs who have won elections two or more times is being monitored more closely. It was seen in the Lok Sabha elections that most of the people who had won the elections twice and contested the elections for the third time lost the elections.

Sanjeev Baliyan lost the Lok Sabha elections from West UP for the third time. Dr. Sanjeev Balyan had contested the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate from Muzaffarnagar Lok Sabha seat. He was elected MP from the same seat in 2014 and 2019, but in 2024 he was defeated by Samajwadi Party’s Harendra Singh Malik by a margin of about 24,600 votes. There are many MLAs of UP whose performance reports are not correct. Taking a lesson from the Lok Sabha election results, the party is planning not to give tickets to such MLAs.

Apart from this, the party is paying attention to the extent of anti-incumbency of the sitting MLAs. Cast factor is also being taken into account this time. The election victory ratio of new candidates is higher. In such a situation, the party can bet on new faces on many seats.

8. What is the political message of the survey?

BJP is giving a clear indication that the 2027 elections will not be fought only on the basis of sitting MLAs. The tickets of representatives against whom negative feedback is received or whose public acceptance is found to be weak may be in danger. Besides, the party is also assessing the nine years of work of the Yogi Adityanath government, the impact of the schemes and possible anti-incumbency. On the other hand, Congress, Samajwadi Party, BSP and Azad Samaj Party are also busy in preparations for candidate selection and organization expansion at their respective levels. The BJP top leadership is keeping an eye on the UP assembly elections. PM Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah do not want to allow any mistake this time.

It is clear that the stage of competition regarding elections 2027 in Uttar Pradesh has already started and the survey report can change many political equations in the coming months.