Kolkata, April 29: Chanakya Strategies has added its projections to a rapidly solidifying exit poll consensus for the West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026, predicting the BJP will win between 150 and 160 seats while the Trinamool Congress is projected at 130 to 140 seats. Others are expected to account for 6 to 10 seats in the 294-member assembly, where the majority mark stands at 148.
Chanakya Strategies’ numbers place the BJP comfortably in majority territory across its entire projected range — with even the lower end of 150 seats clearing the 148-seat threshold. The TMC, at 130 to 140 seats, would finish as a substantial but clearly defeated opposition, registering its worst-ever performance in a West Bengal assembly election by a significant margin.
With Chanakya Strategies now in, five major agencies have published West Bengal exit poll projections tonight. The picture across all five is unambiguous in its directional verdict. P-MARQ projects BJP at 150-175 and TMC at 118-138. Praja projects BJP at 178-208 — the most bullish estimate of the evening. IANS-Matrize projects BJP at 146-161 and TMC at 125-140. Poll Diary projects BJP at 142-171 and TMC at 99-127. Chanakya Strategies projects BJP at 150-160 and TMC at 130-140.
Taking the midpoints of all five agencies’ BJP projections — 162, 193, 153, 156, and 155 respectively — the average exit poll estimate for BJP tonight stands at approximately 164 seats, well above the majority mark. The average TMC midpoint across the four agencies that have specified TMC ranges sits at approximately 126 seats.
Chanakya Strategies’ projection is notable for being among the more moderate BJP estimates of the evening, alongside IANS-Matrize and Poll Diary at their lower ends. The 20-seat gap between BJP’s floor and TMC’s ceiling in Chanakya’s numbers — 150 versus 140 — is the narrowest of any agency tonight, and serves as a reminder that the ground-level contest, particularly in urban Kolkata constituencies and the minority-heavy belts of Murshidabad, Malda, and parts of South 24 Parganas, may be closer than the headline numbers suggest.
The historical caveat remains essential to any reading of these numbers. In 2021, the average of all exit poll agencies overestimated BJP by 49 seats and underestimated TMC by 61 — a systematic bias that, if replicated in 2026, would dramatically compress the BJP’s actual seat tally. However, the structural factors of 2026 — the RG Kar case, 15 years of anti-incumbency, record voter turnout touching 90% by 5 PM on Phase 2 day, and the revised electoral rolls — have led many analysts to argue that this cycle is fundamentally different from 2021.
Whether the exit polls have finally read West Bengal correctly, or whether Mamata Banerjee is once again about to rewrite the script, will be known on May 2.
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