New Delhi: Following the ongoing tension between America and Iran, a temporary ceasefire is in force, but efforts to make it permanent have intensified. Pakistan is playing the role of a major mediator in this process. Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir is meeting Iranian officials in Tehran. At the same time, the Prime Minister of Pakistan is preparing proposals for mediation with countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Apart from this, technical teams of America and Iran are discussing on diluting the enriched uranium. European countries are also active and a meeting of 40 countries is proposed in France, in which opening of the Strait of Hormuz can be discussed. Amidst the activities happening on these four fronts, the question is how long will there be a complete ceasefire?
Peace agreement may take 6 months
Bloomberg, quoting diplomats from Europe, Arabia and the Middle East, has reported that a full peace agreement may take 6 months. Diplomats say that for now the ceasefire should be extended and a plan should be made to open the Strait of Hormuz immediately.
A roadmap to end the Hormuz blockade can be prepared in the proposed meeting in France. This will restore global oil supply and reduce the risk of food crisis.
War may end soon: Trump
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that negotiations with Iran have progressed significantly and the war is expected to end soon. Trump indicated that if a deal is reached, he may go to Islamabad, where Trump and Iranian President Massoud Pajeshkian in Pakistan could sign the deal.
Trump said that Iran wants a deal and talks are moving in a positive direction. However, issues like Hormuz and nuclear program still remain a challenge.
Complete ceasefire till 30 April
The opinion of speculators on Polymarket is also interesting. About 70 percent of speculators believe that there can be a complete ceasefire by April 30. These speculators had earlier made correct predictions about the attack on Iran. However, some markets see only a 35-36 percent chance for a permanent peace agreement by the end of April, while there is a high chance for an extension of the ceasefire or a new meeting by the end of April.
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