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With the counting of votes to take place on May 4, the Congress is hopeful of returning to power in Keralam along with the states of Tamil Nadu and the Union Territory of Puducherry in an alliance led by the DMK, and has started preparing for the same. In West Bengal, where the party contested all the 294 Assembly seats for the first time, it is hopeful of better results this time with an increase in its vote share. In Assam, the grand old party is expecting to give a tough fight to BJP’s Himanta Biswa Sarma with Gaurav Gogoi as its face.
Talking about Congress’ performance in Keralam, party insiders pointed out that the difference in the vote share is going to be thin, but the seat difference is likely to give a majority to the Congress-led UDF. An insider pointed out that the performance of the party has also been reflected in the majority of the exit polls that have come out. Citing reasons for the good performance by the UDF in Keralam, the party insider said that a coordinated campaign has helped the party in the state as it has managed to rule out any internal rift. He said that the way in which Congress leaders like K.C. Venugopal, V.D. Satheesan, Ramesh Chennithala, Sunil Joseph and Shashi Tharoor campaigned gave huge momentum to the Congress. He also said that the Congress, under its top leadership including Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, Siddaramaiah, D.K. Shivakumar, A. Revanth Reddy, Sachin Pilot, Imran Pratapgarhi and others, worked to reach out to people.
The biggest surprise, the insider said, was Venugopal, who is a Lok Sabha MP from Alappuzha in Keralam, camping extensively in the state to give momentum to the party’s campaign. He was the person who placated several leaders including Saji Joseph, Sanjay Khan, Vijay Induchudan, A. Shukur and Balakrishnan, among others, who were upset as they were not given tickets in the elections. Venugopal was instrumental in controlling the rebellion in the state by meeting several of these leaders directly and convincing them to work for the victory of the party. The insider pointed out that the timely intervention by Venugopal ensured that the party remained united in the Assembly polls and that its votes did not get split in case of rebels contesting as independent candidates. Meanwhile, Venugopal had also been instrumental in encouraging several senior LDF candidates to contest independently to cut into the votes of rival camps.
Commenting on the Puducherry and Tamil Nadu poll campaigns, where Rahul Gandhi did not hold joint campaigns with DMK chief and Chief Minister M.K. Stalin—leading to speculation about differences in both camps—another party leader said that joint campaigns had been planned. However, the three-day special session of Parliament on the 131st Constitutional Amendment Bill led to circumstances because of which no joint campaign was possible, and hence, the leaders focused on different regions.
He, however, did not downplay the emergence of actor-turned-politician Vijay’s TVK in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. He said that the higher voter turnout in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry could help the TVK, with youths and women below the age of 40 emerging as a deciding factor. But the BJP bringing the Delimitation Bill along with the Women’s Reservation Bill in Parliament as part of the 131st Constitutional Amendment Bill helped the DMK-led alliance counter the narrative. Congress leaders dubbed Stalin burning a copy of the Delimitation Bill as one of his bold moves to regain voters’ trust in favour of the DMK and an attempt to safeguard Tamil Nadu’s heritage and rights. However, he said that exit poll predictions showing more seats for the TVK and AIADMK are not going to come true.
Some Congress leaders said that the TVK may get 15 to 20 seats, while others opined that the party should have joined hands with Vijay and that not aligning with the TVK was a “missed opportunity”. Another Congress leader said that the AIADMK may return as the biggest opposition party in Tamil Nadu, given the strength of its cadre across the state. He said that the AIADMK cannot be neglected.
For West Bengal, Congress in-charge for the state, Ghulam Ahmed Mir told Read that the Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee is going to do well in the elections, as her government has launched several schemes for women and that will play a major factor in the polls. He also said that the Congress is hopeful of a good show and that its vote share will rise from 4%, with the party winning several seats, possibly up to 20. He said this was significant, as it was for the first time in the last 20 years that the Congress decided to contest all 294 seats on its own, whereas the Trinamool Congress contested only 290 seats. The BJP too did not contest all the seats.
As for Assam, a senior leader said that campaigning in the state started late and that it would have been better if Gaurav Gogoi, the son of former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, had been made the state unit chief soon after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The party source also said that Congress could not take the lead on the controversy surrounding the death of singer Zubeen Garg. He said that Garg had a huge fan following in the state, and the party mentioned him only in its manifesto, which was too late. Even the allegations of corruption against Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma were raised very late. During the last week of campaigning, it was Pawan Khera who launched a blistering attack on Sarma and his wife, Riniki Bhuyan Sarma. The late attack from the Congress, however, worked, and Sarma’s wife filed a case against Khera. Party sources said that this conveyed the Congress’ message about the alleged corruption. However, high-profile desertions from the Congress in the form of Pradyut Bordoloi and Ripun Bora dented the party’s prospects. But the source also cited that the way in which the three Gogois came together for the elections in Assam worked in its favour.
The results of Assam, West Bengal, Keralam, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu will be announced on May 4 after counting on the same day. Looking ahead to the counting, the Congress-led UDF camp is hopeful of coming back to power in Keralam, while in Puducherry and Tamil Nadu it is looking to return to power along with the DMK.
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