Karnataka’s simmering power struggle reached a boiling point this week, as the Congress high command summoned both state Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar to New Delhi for what turned out to be a decisive round of negotiations.
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Election analyst Sandeep Shastri, political analyst Chandan Gowda, and The Federal’s Political Editor Puneet Nicholas Yadav came together in this edition of AI With Sanket anchored by this writer, to make sense of what is unfolding — and what it means for Karnataka’s political future.
Late but deliberate
The panel was unanimous that the leadership change, while overdue, was being handled with unusual care by the Congress high command. “This has been on the cards for quite some time, and the Congress high command has postponed it to the extent it could,” said Shastri.
“Given the experience in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the high command has realised that it is important that the incumbent is taken fully into confidence before any shift is made,” he added.
The slow pace of the transition, Shastri argued, was deliberate — a byproduct of wanting Siddaramaiah to not just accept the change, but to be seen as proposing it himself.
Could the Congress’s move be compared to the rival Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) playbook?
“On a superficial level, it does seem like the Nitish Kumar model — being given a Rajya Sabha seat. But it is going to be very different in this case,” Gowda said, suggesting that Siddaramaiah could yet evolve into a significant national presence.
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“(Mallikarjun) Kharge stands with the Dalit voice, and Siddaramaiah could emerge as an important OBC voice. He is still energetic. Even as a chief minister, he was responding to Narendra Modi as if he were a national-level leader,” he said.
‘Siddaramaiah wants to resign faster than the Congress expected’
What actually transpired in Delhi remains partly shrouded. Yadav offered the most detailed account, drawing on sources close to the principals. “Rahul Gandhi’s discussion with Siddaramaiah was a one-on-one for almost 40 to 45 minutes,” he said. “What transpired there — Siddaramaiah hasn’t given any official version. What we know is twice removed from the primary source.”
After the meeting, Siddaramaiah met a retinue of ministers he had brought with him to Delhi — K J George, H C Mahadevappa, and Byrathi Suresh, among others — and it is from these conversations that the outlines of the deal began to emerge.
A Rajya Sabha seat has reportedly been offered to Siddaramaiah. But according to Yadav, the Congress high command was in no rush. “They told him: take a week, take 10 days. Give it thought — whether you want the Rajya Sabha route or whether you want to stay put in Karnataka.”
What surprised everyone, Yadav said, was Siddaramaiah’s response. “He wants to resign faster than the Congress high command had expected him to.”
Non-negotiables and the bargaining table
Siddaramaiah may be stepping down, but he is not stepping aside without conditions. Yadav outlined what people close to the chief minister describe as non-negotiables. Chief among them is the protection of the Ahinda coalition — Karnataka’s politically crucial grouping of minorities, backward classes, and Dalits — in the new cabinet. “Siddaramaiah is the tallest political leader of that group. What kind of representation does that bloc get in the new cabinet?” Yadav asked.
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Equally significant, Siddaramaiah reportedly pushed for the next chief minister to come from within the Ahinda fold — with Home Minister G Parameshwara, a Dalit leader, named as his preferred candidate. That proposal was firmly rejected. “The only thing he was not given a say on was in picking the next chief minister,” said Yadav. “That was made very clear.”
Shastri added a stunning detail — that in the meeting with Rahul, Siddaramaiah apparently presented a letter showing that more than 100 Congress MLAs were backing him. “There is that saying — my support within the Legislature Party is quite significant,” Shastri said.
Shivakumar’s calculation
For Shivakumar, the focus is singular. “The aim is to get the chief ministership,” said Shastri. “I don’t think he would be too worried about how many deputy chief ministers there are. As long as the chief ministership is mine — that is what needs to happen.” Shivakumar has reportedly already agreed to give up the Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee president’s post as part of the arrangement.
But the road ahead may not be smooth. Yadav noted that Siddaramaiah’s current tenure has itself been marked by difficulty — and attributed a large part of that difficulty to Shivakumar’s behind-the-scenes manoeuvres. “What I think is likely is Siddaramaiah repaying all those moments to Shivakumar when he takes over,” he said bluntly.
The caste census wildcard
Yadav pointed to one particular issue that could define Shivakumar’s early days in office — and potentially destabilise them. “One of the trickiest issues for the Karnataka government right now is the caste census report, which has been gathering dust for a while,” he said. “What I am given to understand is that Siddaramaiah has asked for the submission of that report to be fast-tracked.”
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The report, currently with the Backward Classes Commission under Chairman Madhusudan R Naik, is expected to be presented to the government imminently. “Once that report comes in — what does Shivakumar do with it? Caste census is also a very important plank for Rahul Gandhi nationally. You are also easing out the only OBC chief minister the party currently has. If Shivakumar is not able to handle the fallout, that in itself is going to be a major problem for him.”
Operation Kamal — real risk or bluff?
The panel also addressed fears about Operation Kamal — the BJP’s strategy of engineering defections to topple governments. Shastri assessed the risk as low, given the Congress’s comfortable numbers in the Karnataka Assembly. “Operation Kamal at this stage may be a little difficult to take forward,” he said. However, he raised the more intriguing possibility of a rebellion from within — noting the 100-MLA letter as a signal of internal leverage.
Gowda dismissed the scenario of Siddaramaiah taking his MLAs to the BJP. “I don’t think all of them will want to leave. And I am not even sure if the BJP wants 100 Congress MLAs inside it. It is just too complex.”
As Karnataka prepares for its next political chapter, the consensus on the panel was clear — the transition may be happening, but the turbulence is only just beginning.
The content above has been transcribed from video using a fine-tuned AI model. To ensure accuracy, quality, and editorial integrity, we employ a Human-In-The-Loop (HITL) process. While AI assists in creating the initial draft, our experienced editorial team carefully reviews, edits, and refines the content before publication. At The Federal, we combine the efficiency of AI with the expertise of human editors to deliver reliable and insightful journalism.
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