Yogesh Kumar Goyal,
senior journalist
The ‘Year Book 2026’ of ‘Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’ (SIPRI) has indicated that India’s nuclear strategy is entering a new phase. According to the report, for the first time in peacetime, India has kept 12 nuclear warheads in deployed status and its total nuclear arsenal has increased to 190 warheads.
This is not just an increase in numbers, but is being considered a sign of a significant change in India’s strategic thinking and operational capability. According to the report, India’s nuclear stockpile has increased continuously in the last few years. While India was estimated to have about 180 nuclear weapons during the year 2024-25, now this number has reached 190.
On the other hand, Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile remains stable at 170 warheads. Thus, for the first time, India has made a significant lead over Pakistan in terms of the number of nuclear weapons. According to a study by the Stockholm-based ‘International Peace Research Institute’, as of January 2021, India had only 156 nuclear weapons while Pakistan and China had 165 and 350 respectively.
In nuclear strategy, numbers alone are not decisive, but the quality of weapons, their deployment, strike capability and reliability of counter-attacks are much more important. The biggest feature of India’s nuclear policy has been that under normal circumstances it kept nuclear weapons and the missiles carrying them in separate safe stores.
Its purpose was to minimize the possibility of accidental or unauthorized use. The most important finding of the SIPRI report is that India now has a limited number of nuclear warheads in operational deployment mode, that is, some warheads are no longer merely secured in warehouses, but are kept in such a state that they can be used in a relatively short period of time if needed.
This change does not signal abandonment of India’s stated ‘no first use’ policy. India has not yet made any formal change in its policy. What this actually means is that if India is launched a nuclear attack by an adversary, India’s response could be more swift and credible than before. Strategic experts see this as strengthening deterrence, because the basic purpose of nuclear weapons is not to fight war but to prevent war.
An important aspect of India’s nuclear modernization program is linked to China. Over the past decade, China has rapidly expanded its nuclear arsenal and missile capabilities. According to SIPRI, China’s nuclear stockpile has increased to approximately 620 warheads. The tension in India-China relations after the 2020 Galwan Valley incident has created new strategic challenges.
This is why India is now paying special attention to the development of such long-range missiles, which can reach remote areas of China. Ballistic missiles with intercontinental capability like Agni-5 and future advanced systems are part of this strategic thinking. India plans not only to maintain balance with respect to Pakistan but also to develop credible deterrence against a big power like China. This is the reason why India’s nuclear strategy is now being developed keeping in mind the two-front security challenges.
Another important dimension of India’s growing nuclear capability is its sea power. In modern nuclear strategy, ‘Second Strike Capacity’, i.e. the ability to launch an effective counter-attack even after the first attack of the enemy, is considered extremely important. In this context, India’s nuclear submarines hold special importance. INS Arihant and the nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines developed thereafter are becoming the most important part of India’s nuclear triad. Nuclear trinity means that a country has the capability to launch a nuclear attack through all three means: land, air and sea.
India today is among the few countries which have developed this capability to a great extent. Submarines deployed in the sea are extremely difficult to detect, hence they make any country’s defense capability more reliable. The SIPRI report also indicates that India is now deploying some nuclear weapons on ballistic missile submarines. This is a significant leap in India’s maritime nuclear capability. This makes India’s security system more flexible and effective.
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