72
Rebellions in opposition parties could further bolster NDA’s parliamentary strength.
The National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) strength in Parliament could increase further in the wake of internal rebellions in the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and Shiv Sena (UBT). With the support of 20 rebel TMC MPs and six MPs from the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena faction, the NDA’s strength in the Lok Sabha could rise from 294 to 320. Meanwhile, following the Rajya Sabha elections held on June 18 and the possible resignations of some TMC MPs, the NDA’s tally in the Upper House is expected to increase from 148 to 154. However, to secure a two-thirds majority, the alliance would still require an additional 40 seats in the Lok Sabha and nine seats in the Rajya Sabha.
According to reports, in the 55 days since April 24, 2026, as many as 34 MPs have been in the news over resignations from their parties or their absence from parliamentary party meetings despite the issuance of whips, developments that are seen as potentially benefiting the NDA.
On April 24, seven Rajya Sabha MPs joined the BJP, dealing a major setback to the Aam Aadmi Party. Subsequently, the Trinamool Congress faced turbulence following the West Bengal Assembly election results announced on May 4, 2026. After a number of MLAs exited the party, 20 rebel MPs reportedly met Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla and submitted a letter expressing their intention to merge with the NCPI and extend support to the NDA. Three TMC Rajya Sabha MPs also resigned.
A few days later, reports emerged of a rebellion by six MPs from the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT). The MPs met Speaker Om Birla and submitted a memorandum seeking constitutional action. Furthermore, during the parliamentary party meeting held on June 18, only Anil Desai, Arvind Sawant and Rajabhau Prakash Waje attended, while the remaining MPs stayed away. The party subsequently issued show-cause notices to the absent MPs and gave them seven days to respond.
If these MPs eventually support the NDA, the alliance would move closer to strengthening its parliamentary position further.
The NDA currently has 294 MPs in the Lok Sabha. If the 20 rebel TMC MPs who have reportedly merged with the NCPI support the alliance, and if six rebel Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs also back the NDA, the alliance’s strength would rise to 320.
At present, three seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha are vacant, reducing the effective strength of the House to 540. A two-thirds majority would therefore require the support of 360 members. In such a scenario, the NDA would still require 40 more MPs to attain the two-thirds mark.
The NDA currently has 148 MPs in the Rajya Sabha. Following the results of the Rajya Sabha elections in Jharkhand and Mizoram, the alliance’s tally could increase to 150 with the support of one Independent member and one member from the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM).
The resignation of three TMC Rajya Sabha MPs has created vacancies in West Bengal. Given the prevailing political circumstances, NDA-backed candidates are expected to have a strong chance of winning these seats. If that happens, the alliance’s strength in the Upper House could rise to 153 or 154.
The Rajya Sabha has a total strength of 245 members, and a two-thirds majority requires the support of 163 MPs. Even after these gains, the NDA would remain around nine or ten seats short of that mark. Additional resignations by TMC members could further alter the equation.
However, challenges remain. The terms of 10 Rajya Sabha members from Uttar Pradesh are set to expire in November. Owing to its current strength in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly, the Samajwadi Party could improve its representation in the Upper House, potentially changing the numerical balance.
According to sources, the delimitation bill was defeated by a margin of 54 votes during the special Budget Session of 2026. However, the Modi government is expected to attempt to secure the necessary numbers to pass the legislation during the forthcoming Monsoon Session.
Comments are closed.