No organization, no permanent vote bank; How will Congress sail through the UP election battle?

Lucknow. Congress, which was once the center of Uttar Pradesh politics, is today going through its most difficult phase before the 2027 assembly elections. The party which once ruled the state for decades is now fighting for its existence and relevance. Organizational weakness, lack of strong state leadership, weak network at the booth level and lack of permanent vote bank are the biggest challenges before the Congress. In such a situation, the biggest question in the political circles is whether Congress will be able to compete on its own in 2027 or it will have to take the help of alliance with Samajwadi Party.

The new president of the state Congress has not been declared yet. Ajay Rai is still holding the command of the state unit, but despite the assembly elections approaching, the organization has not been able to get permanent leadership. The Congress high command is looking for such a face in the state who can strengthen the organization and take all social sections along.

Situation at ground level still challenging

Congress is continuously talking about ‘organization creation campaign’, but the situation at the ground level is still challenging. In many districts, the appointments of district presidents are not complete. At many places, block and booth level committees are not active. Whereas booth management is considered to be the strongest weapon to win the assembly elections.

No permanent vote bank, this is the biggest weakness

The politics of Uttar Pradesh has been based on social equations for a long time. Samajwadi Party is considered to have a strong base of Yadav and Muslim votes. BJP is believed to have the support of Brahmins, Thakurs, backward classes and a large number of other sections. The traditional base of Bahujan Samaj Party has been Dalit voters.

The biggest challenge before the Congress is that it does not have any permanent social vote bank left, which can be seen standing firmly with it in every election. After 1989, the social base of Congress in the state gradually shifted towards regional parties. A large section of Brahmins, Dalits, Muslims and backward classes joined different political parties, the impact of which was continuously visible on the electoral performance of the party.

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Benefit of alliance in Lok Sabha, challenge in Assembly

Congress got direct benefit from the alliance with Samajwadi Party in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The party was successful in winning six seats and its vote percentage also increased. But in the 2022 assembly elections, Congress was reduced to only two seats. It is clear from this that the electoral equations of Lok Sabha and Assembly are different.

This is the reason why Congress wants to keep the possibilities of alliance open in 2027 also. However, its expectations regarding seat distribution are also considered high.

Will Congress bet on new faces?

The biggest challenge before the Congress in Uttar Pradesh is to prepare a strong regional leadership. The party currently has active faces like Ajay Rai, Pramod Tiwari, Aradhana Mishra ‘Mona’, Brijlal Khabri, Supriya Shrinet, Tanuj Punia, Virendra Chaudhary and Alka Lamba. Apart from this, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, associated with Rae Bareli and Amethi, are also considered to be the biggest campaigners of the party in the election campaign. However, the influence of many of these leaders is considered limited to a particular area. The universally recognized face that unites the organization across Uttar Pradesh still remains a challenge for the Congress.

Why did Congress’s support base weaken?

According to political analysts, there are many reasons behind the weakening of Congress. Continuous electoral defeats, rise of regional parties, weakening of local leadership, inactivity of the organization, weakening of cadre at the booth level and changing social equations are considered to be the main reasons. Along with this, being out of power for a long time has also affected the organization of the party.

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2027 ‘do or die’ fight for Congress

The 2027 assembly elections will not only be an election for Congress to win seats, but will also be the biggest test to re-establish its political identity and organization in Uttar Pradesh. If the party prepares a strong state president, active organization and a clear election strategy in time, then it can make a better position in the competition. But if organizational shortcomings and leadership crisis persist, it will not be easy for Congress to regain its lost ground in state politics.