A very big and interesting news related to the politics of Uttar Pradesh is coming out. Elections for 10 vacant Rajya Sabha seats in UP have been officially announced. If we assess according to the current strength in the Assembly, then out of these, 8 seats seem to be going to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and 2 seats to the Samajwadi Party (SP). However, all this will be possible only if both the parties field as many candidates as they have the strength for the seats.
Danger of cross voting and chances of MLAs breaking up
If any of these political parties fields more candidates than the votes they have, then there can definitely be a breakdown of MLAs and a major upheaval in the equations of victory and defeat. Let us tell you that out of the 10 seats which are falling vacant, earlier 1 seat was with SP, 1 seat was with BSP and 8 seats were with BJP. After the results of this election, the representation of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in the Upper House of Parliament i.e. Rajya Sabha will be completely zero (0).
At present, if we look at the party wise strength of UP Assembly, BJP has 257 MLAs, SP has 101, Apna Dal (Sonelal) has 13, Rashtriya Lok Dal has 9, Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party has 6, Nishad Party has 5, Congress has 2 and Jansatta Dal Loktantrik has 2 MLAs. Apart from this, there are also 3 unaffiliated MLAs, which include Manoj Pandey, Rakesh Singh and Abhay Singh. Since only the Assembly MLAs vote in the Rajya Sabha elections, as per the current mathematics, 7 seats of BJP and 2 seats of SP are considered confirmed, while there are full chances of a close contest on 1 seat.
BJP camp's political mathematics and game of votes
At present there are a total of 398 MLAs in the UP Assembly and elections are to be held on a total of 10 seats. In such a situation, the quota required for the victory of a candidate is approximately 37 MLAs' votes. BJP and its NDA allies together have the strong support of 295 MLAs. If the party wins 7 seats, then 7 times 37 i.e. total 259 votes will be required. Even after using these 259 votes, the BJP camp will be left with 36 votes.
But if the party wants to win the 8th seat also, it will need a total of 37 votes. According to this, BJP will be lacking exactly 1 vote to win the 8th seat on its own. This is the reason why the discussion has intensified in the political circles whether this time also some MLAs will cross-vote or break away. Now only these coming times and the equations at that time of election will decide on which side the camel sits.
Samajwadi Party will have extra votes left.
On the other hand, if we talk about the political equation of Samajwadi Party, including 2 MLAs of Congress, this entire alliance has the support of a total of 103 MLAs. On the basis of this, SP's victory on 2 seats is absolutely certain. To win these 2 seats, SP will need 2 times 37 i.e. 74 votes. Even after making both its candidates victorious, the SP camp will be left with about 29 votes.